USDA WASDE: Global soybean production forecast to rise 15% year-over-year to 271.4 million tonnes in 2012/2013; U.S. soybean ending stocks to fall 31% to 145 million bushels--leaving stocks-to-use ration at historically low 4.4%
May 10, 2012
– The following article is excerpted from the May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at 97.0 million tons, up 6 percent from 2011/12. Higher soybean production accounts for most of the increase, but sunflowerseed, canola, peanut, and cottonseed production also are all projected above last year. Soybean production is projected at 3.205 billion bushels, up from the 2011 crop as higher yields more than offset lower harvested area. Harvested area is projected at 73.0 million acres based on a 5-year average harvested-to-planted ratio and planted area of 73.9 million acres. Soybean yields are projected at 43.9 bushels per acre, up 2.4 bushels from 2011. With beginning stocks projected at 210 million bushels, 2012/13 soybean supplies are projected at 3.43 billion bushels, up 4 percent from 2011/12.
U.S. soybean crush for 2012/13 is projected at 1.655 billion bushels, almost unchanged from 2011/12 as a lower extraction rate offsets reduced total soybean meal use. Total soybean meal use is projected down 1 percent as reduced exports are only partly offset by gains in domestic use. Increased soybean meal exports from Paraguay and Argentina are expected to exceed the limited gains in global import demand, resulting in reduced U.S. export prospects. With increased 2012/13 U.S. soybean supplies and sharply lower South American soybean supplies on hand this fall, U.S. soybean exports are projected at 1.505 billion bushels, up 190 million from 2011/12. Ending stocks for 2012/13 are projected at 145 million bushels, down 65 million from 2011/12, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at a historically low 4.4 percent. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2012/13 is projected at $12.00 to $14.00 per bushel compared with $12.35 per bushel in 2011/12. Soybean meal prices are forecast at $335 to $365 per short ton, compared with $360. Soybean oil prices are projected at 52.5 to 56.5 cents per pound compared with 53.5 cents for 2011/12.
Global oilseed production for 2012/13 is projected at a record 471.5 million tons, up 8 percent from 2011/12 mainly due to increased soybean production. Global soybean production is projected at 271.4 million tons, up almost 15 percent. The Argentina soybean crop is projected at 55 million tons, up 12.5 million from 2011/12 as yields rebound and relatively high prices lead to record harvested area. The Brazil soybean crop is projected at a record 78 million tons, up 13 million, also due to record harvested area and improved yields.
Paraguay soybean production is projected at 7.8 million tons, up 3.8 million from 2011/12 as yields rebound strongly from drought-reduced levels. China soybean production is projected at 13.1 million tons, down 0.4 million from 2011/12 as producers continue to shift area to more profitable crops. Global production of high-oil content seeds (sunflowerseed and rapeseed) is projected almost unchanged from 2011/12 as increased area is mostly offset by lower yields. Oilseed supplies for 2012/13 are up 3 percent from 2011/12 despite a 23 percent reduction in beginning stocks resulting from drought-reduced South American crops. With crush projected to increase 2.9 percent, 2012/13 global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 65.6 million tons, up 2.9 million from 2011/12, but still 15.8 million below 2010/11.
Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 2.8 percent in 2012/13. Protein meal consumption is projected to increase 5 percent in China, accounting for about half of global protein consumption gains. Global soybean exports are projected at 97.3 million tons, up 9 percent from 2011/12. China soybean imports are projected at 61 million tons, up 5 million from 2011/12. Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 3.2 percent in 2012/13, led by increases for China and India.