USDA WASDE: U.S. season-average corn prices forecast to reach US$5.90-US$6.50/bushel in 2011/2012; sorghum prices to reach US$5.80-US$6.40/bushel
March 9, 2012
– The following article is excerpted from the March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA.
COARSE GRAINS: U.S. corn, sorghum, and barley balance sheets for 2011/12 are unchanged this month. Oats imports for 2011/12 are projected 5 million bushels higher with larger expected shipments from Canada. Projected U.S. oats ending stocks are increased by the same amount. The projected ranges for the season-average corn and sorghum farm prices are both narrowed 10 cents on each end to $5.90 to $6.50 per bushel and $5.80 to $6.40 per bushel, respectively. The barley farm price range is lowered 10 cents on the top end of the range to $5.20 to $5.50 per bushel. The oats farm price range is raised 10 cents on the bottom end of the range to $3.35 to $3.55 per bushel.
Global coarse grain supplies for 2011/12 are projected 1.6 million tons higher with production increases for Brazil corn and India corn and millet. Partly offsetting are reductions in sorghum output for India and Argentina and corn output for South Africa and Ecuador. Brazil corn production is raised 1 million tons on higher expected area for the second crop, which is planted following soybeans. India corn and millet production are raised 0.5 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, in line with the latest government crop assessments. India sorghum production is lowered 0.7 million tons mostly reflecting lower expected area as the crop faces significant competition from cotton, soybeans, and pulses. Argentina sorghum production is lowered 0.2 million tons with lower expected yields. South Africa corn production is lowered 0.5 million tons as higher reported area is more than offset by reduced yield prospects. Below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures throughout South Africa’s maize triangle adversely affected pollination and early grain fill during February. Corn production for Ecuador is lowered 0.3 million tons as excess rains lower area and yields.
Global coarse grain trade for 2011/12 is raised with increases for corn and barley. Corn imports are raised for EU-27, Ecuador, and Peru, but lowered for Malaysia. Corn exports are raised for Brazil and India. Barley imports are raised for Iran and China. Barley exports are raised for Australia. Lower sorghum exports for Argentina are offset by higher expected shipments from Australia.
Global coarse grain consumption for 2011/12 is raised 2.2 million tons mostly on higher corn feeding in EU-27 and India, and higher millet use in India. EU-27 corn feeding is raised 1.0 million tons as corn is expected to replace higher priced wheat in animal rations. India corn and millet feeding are raised a combined 1.0 million tons. Millet food use is also raised 0.6 million tons for India. Partly offsetting these increases are reductions in sorghum food use in India, barley feeding in Australia, and corn feeding in Malaysia. Global coarse grain ending stocks for 2011/12 are lowered slightly, with 0.8-million-ton reduction in projected world corn stocks.