India's sugar production forecast to rise 34.9% to 37.1 million tonnes by 2015/2016 due to growing consumption, increase in soft drink demand, report says; palm oil output to grow 34.2% to 70,710 tonnes

Andrew Rogers

DUBLIN , February 22, 2012 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "India Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

Business Monitor International's India Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on India's agribusiness service.

BMI View: The southwest monsoon has progressed much better than initially expected, boosting overall agriculture output of the country. In line with BMIs long-held view, this has prompted the government to lift a three-year export ban on wheat, rice and sugar largely on the back of bulging domestic supplies.

Ultimately however, BMI believe that India's agriculture potential is still largely untapped, mainly hindered by slow bureaucratic processes and systemic inefficiencies.

Key Trends

Sugar production growth to 2015/16: 34.9% to 37.1mn tonnes. This will come from growing consumption through population growth. A growing preference for soft drinks will also buoy sugar demand in India.

Palm oil production growth to 2015/16: 34.2% to 70,710 tonnes. India will be increasingly reliant on palm oil imports over the long term, owing to a lack of investment into domestic palm oil cultivation.

Poultry production to 2015/16: 27.8% to 3.6mn tonnes. Despite this robust growth, inefficiencies in the sector will see demand outstrip production by 2015 and for the country to become a net importer of poultry.

2012 real GDP growth: 7.5% (down from 7.4% in 2011; predicted to average 7.6% from 2011 until 2016).

Consumer price inflation: 8.5% average in 2012 (down from 9.2% y-o-y average in 2011; predicted to average 8.4% from 2011 until 2016).

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