Forecast lowers total U.S. local ad revenues for 2011 to US$135.9B from previously predicted US$136.2B, raises online/digital ad revenue to US$23.3B, 17.2% of total local ad revenues, up from US$22.3B: BIA/Kelsey
November 7, 2011
– The impact of the sluggish global economy on the local media marketplace is being somewhat offset by robust performance in the digital media sector, according to the fall update of BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2010-2015). The local media research and advisory firm expects total local advertising revenues for 2011 to be $135.9 billion, down from the $136.2 billion it forecast earlier this year.
In line with earlier BIA/Kelsey forecasts, traditional media segments such as Yellow Pages and newspapers are experiencing the largest downward revisions. Meanwhile, U.S. local online/digital advertising revenues will rise to $23.3 billion in 2011, compared with $22.3 billion predicted earlier this year.
“As the economy wavers between meager growth and the prospect of a second recession dip, advertisers remain guarded and apprehensive about making spending commitments,” said Mark Fratrik, vice president and chief economist, BIA/Kelsey. “That ‘pulling back’ by national and local businesses is hitting hard some of the more traditional media, due in part to the generally lower prices of some digital media and the desire by these businesses to shift their budgets to targeted audience opportunities and performance models.”
The firm expects local online/ digital advertising revenues will be 17.2 percent of total local advertising revenues in 2011, up from the earlier forecast of 16.4 percent. By 2015 that share will increase to 25.4 percent, up from the 24.7 percent originally predicted.
With the changes in the firm’s estimates for 2011 and subsequent years, BIA/Kelsey expects the overall local media market will grow slowly over the next five years, at a compound annual growth rate of 1.7 percent, reaching $149.4 billion by 2015.
BIA/Kelsey analysts will present highlights from the forecast at the firm’s upcoming Interactive Local Media West conference, Dec. 12-14, in San Francisco. ILM West is the largest gathering of senior executives from across the local digital media, advertising and marketing space. ILM West will focus on the latest developments in local online media, search, mobile, social, daily deals and transactions. Information about the conference, including featured speakers, agenda, sponsors and online registration, is available at www.biakelsey.com/ilmwest2011.
About the U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast
BIA/Kelsey defines the local media advertising marketplace as those media that provide local audiences to all types of advertisers. The BIA/Kelsey U.S. Local Media Annual Forecast (2010-2015) draws from proprietary data; company, industry and country information in the public domain; and discussions with clients and non-clients about the direction and pace of development in the local media marketplace. The forecast is available to clients of the firm’s Continuous Advisory Services; Clients may login now to access the forecast. For information on BIA/Kelsey’s CAS offerings, contact Steve Passwaiter at firstname.lastname@example.org or visit http://www.biakelsey.com/Advisory-Services/.
BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research, Continuous Advisory Services and conferences. Since 1983 BIA/Kelsey has been a resource to the media, mobile advertising, telecommunications, Yellow Pages and electronic directory markets, as well as to government agencies, law firms and investment companies looking to understand trends and revenue drivers. BIA/Kelsey’s annual conferences draw executives from across industries seeking expert guidance on how companies are finding innovative ways to grow. Additional information is available at http://www.biakelsey.com, on the company’s Local Media Watch blog, Twitter (http://twitter.com/BIAKelsey) and Facebook (http://www.facebook.com/biakelsey).