Investors remain optimistic from June 2010 to December 2010 about California's commercial real estate market, finds UCLA Anderson Forecast; consensus is a market turning point in late 2012 or early 2013
February 3, 2011
– California office and industrial markets are showing signs of real optimism, according to the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Commercial Real Estate Survey. The survey polls a panel of investors in commercial real estate as to their views of how the market will be changing over the coming three years.
“A recovery in commercial real estate always lags a recovery in the rest of the economy. What we are observing is typical in this part of the business cycle”
“In June, the survey picked up the first indication of a turning point in the latter part of 2012 or early part of 2013. The current survey, taken in November and December 2010, bolsters those results and gives us more confidence that we are looking at the image of a turning point,” said Jerry Nickelsburg, Senior economist, UCLA Anderson Forecast.
The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast Industrial Space Survey for industrial space shows similar optimism throughout California. This is most pronounced in the Bay Area with growth in technology sectors. In Los Angeles and Orange County, the sentiment is one of optimism, though not with the same enthusiasm as in the Bay Area. The expectation of improved industrial markets in 2013, even in the Inland Empire, is another image of a recovery on the way.
“A recovery in commercial real estate always lags a recovery in the rest of the economy. What we are observing is typical in this part of the business cycle,” said Nickelsburg. “After eighteen months of pessimism about office and industrial markets we have now seen six months of optimism.” The depth of the recession and the slowness of the recovery attenuate the recovery in commercial real estate markets, but the evidence from the Surveys indicates that the historical pattern will hold. In sum, the continued optimism is a solid image of a turning point in commercial markets by 2013.
For a copy of the latest Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project, please visit: www.allenmatkins.com/AM-UCLA-Real-Estate-Survey.
The Allen Matkins/UCLA Anderson Forecast California Commercial Real Estate Survey and Index Research Project polled a panel of California real estate professionals in the office space and investment market, and asked a series of questions on various aspects of the commercial real estate market. It was initiated by Allen Matkins in 2006, furtherance of their interest in improving the quality of current information and forecasts of commercial real estate.
About Allen Matkins
Allen Matkins Leck Gamble Mallory & Natsis LLP, founded in 1977, is a California-based law firm with approximately 220 attorneys practicing out of seven offices in Los Angeles, Orange County, San Francisco, San Diego, Century City, Del Mar Heights and Walnut Creek. The firm's broad areas of practice include real estate, land use, construction, real estate finance, business litigation, corporate and securities, intellectual property, environmental, taxation, bankruptcy and creditors' rights, and employment and labor law. For more than 30 years, Allen Matkins has helped clients turn opportunity and challenge into success by providing practical advice, innovative solutions and valuable business opportunities. Allen Matkins is located on the Web at www.allenmatkins.com.
About UCLA Anderson Forecast
UCLA Anderson Forecast is one of the most widely watched and often-cited economic outlooks for California and the nation and was unique in predicting both the seriousness of the early-1990s downturn in California and the strength of the state's rebound since 1993. More recently, the Forecast was credited as the first major U.S. economic forecasting group to declare the recession of 2001. Visit UCLA Anderson Forecast on the Web at http://uclaforecast.com.
About UCLA Anderson School of Management
UCLA Anderson School of Management, established in 1935, is regarded among the very best business schools in the world. UCLA Anderson faculty are ranked #1 in "intellectual capital" by BusinessWeek and are renowned for their teaching excellence and research in advancing management thinking. Each year, UCLA Anderson provides management education to more than 1,600 students enrolled in MBA, Executive MBA, Fully-Employed MBA and doctoral programs, and to more than 2,000 professional managers through executive education programs. Combining highly selective admissions, varied and innovative learning programs, and a world-wide network of 35,000 alumni, UCLA Anderson develops and prepares global leaders.
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