CEPEA: ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn falls 2.6% to 23.67 reais/60-kg bag on Oct. 15

Nevin Barich

PIRACICABA, Brazil , October 18, 2013 (press release) – The planting of the summer corn crop stepped up in Brazil in early October, favored by weather conditions. More significant advances were observed in crops in the Southern region in Brazil, where the product may be replaced by soybean. Conab (National Company for Food Supply) forecasts indicate that the corn planted area in the first crop may be the smallest since the middle of the 70’s, when Conab series started. Meanwhile, the price average in regions surveyed by Cepea registered decreases, and, regionally, distinct trends were observed in the same state and/or among regions in different states.

In the first fortnight of October, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for corn (Campinas-SP region; cash price, using the CDI discount rate) downed 2.63% and closed at 23.67 or 10.84 dollars per 60-kilo bag on Oct. 15. Considering the NPR discount rate, prices in Campinas-SP region (cash price) closed at 23.28 reais or 10.66 dollars per 60-kilo bag, dropped 2.43% in the same period.

Considering the 2013/14 season, which is still being cropped, producers from Paraná State planted 56% of the forecasted area until the middle of October, according to Seab/Deral (Secretariat of Agricultural and Supply of Paraná State). In Rio Grande do Sul State, Emater (Institution for the Agricultural Development of the Government of the Rio Grande do Sul State) points to 52% of the area already planted, higher than that observed in 2012 (50%).

Conab data indicate that the planted area in the 2013/14 first season may total between 6.36 and 6.57 million hectares, for a decrease from 3.7% to 6.8%.

The average yield in the 2013/14 first corn crop was forecasted by Conab at 5,081 kilos per hectare, close to the average registered in the 2012/13 season, of 5,104 kilos per hectare.

Considering the two crops, the total area may be between 15.36 and 15.57 million hectares, from 1.6% to 2.9% smaller than the previous. The Brazilian corn production may amount 78.43 and 79.63 million tons – in the 2012/13 season, more than 81 million tons were produced.

Conab revised upwards estimates for corn exports in the 2012/13 season (February/13 – January/14), to 20 million tons. Therefore, ending stocks in January/14 may total 14.6 million tons, still a record. (Cepea – Brazil)

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