US Freight Transportation Services Index falls 0.6% month-over-month in July after two months of consecutive growth; TSI declined due to decreases in trucking, rail carloads, rail intermodal and pipeline, while air freight and water increased: US DOT

Freight Transportation Services Index, July 2019-July 2022

The level of for-hire freight shipments in July measured by the Freight TSI (139.6) was 1.8% below the all-time high level of 142.1 in August 2019 (Table 2A). BTS’ TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data. 

The June index was revised to 140.5 from 142.4 in last month’s release. Due to revisions in source data (the ATA truck tonnage index was revised, and BTS received actual aviation ton-mile data in place of forecasted data), the June 2022 index is no longer the all-time high but still remains above the May 2022 index.  March was revised down slightly and January was revised up slightly.

BTS is withholding the scheduled release of the passenger and combined indexes for July. The passenger index for July is a statistical estimate of airline passenger travel and other components based on historical trends up to June 2022. The statistical estimate does not fully account for the rapidly changing impacts of the coronavirus on the historical trend. Air freight for July is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included. The June passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI declined in July due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, rail carloads, rail intermodal, and pipeline, while air freight and water increased.

The July decrease came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.6% in July, reflecting increases of 0.7% in manufacturing and 0.7% in mining, while utilities declined by 0.8%. Housing starts were down 9.6% while personal income increased by 0.2%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.2 points to 52.8, indicating slowing growth in manufacturing.

Although the July Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the June index is now being released. The index decreased 0.8% from May to June following an increase of 1.7% in May. Seasonally adjusted air passenger declined while rail passenger, and transit grew.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirteen months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 28th consecutive month.

Trend: The July freight index decrease followed two monthly increases for a net increase of 0.1% since April 2021.  It was the second month-over-month decrease in eleven months, for a total increase of 3.3% since August 2021. The July Freight TSI is 11.5% above the pandemic low in April 2020; it has increased in 18 of the 27 months since that low. The index is now 1.8% below its previous record level of 142.1 set in August 2019, despite increasing in 19 of the 35 months since that earlier peak. 

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in July 2022 (139.6) were 46.9% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The July 2022 level was 1.8% below the historic peak reached in August 2019 (142.1) (Table 1A).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were up 1.6% in July compared to the end of 2021 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are up 8.5% in the five years from July 2017 and are up 23.0% in the 10 years from July 2012 (Table 5).  

Same month of previous year: July 2022 for-hire freight shipments were up 3.3% from July 2021 (Tables 4, 5). 

The TSI has three seasonally-adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the August 2022 index is scheduled for October 13, 2022.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month’s data are added.    

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.   

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

 
Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since January 2022 
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally-Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding. 

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2022 

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2: Freight Transportation Services Index Monthly Changes, 2019-2022
Percent change from previous month

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 2A: Freight Transportation Services Index by Month, 2019-2022

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 3: Freight Transportation Services Index Year-to-Date Change, 2013-2022
Percent change to July from December of the previous year

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Table 4: Freight Transportation Services Index from Year-to-Year
Percent Change in the July Freight TSI 
(Monthly average of 2000 = 100)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.
 

Table 5: Freight Transportation Services Index from Previous Years 
Percent Change to 2022 (July to July)

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.

Brief Explanation of the TSI
    
The Transportation Services Index (TSI) is a measure of the month-to-month changes in the output of services provided by the for-hire transportation industries.  The freight index measure changes in freight shipments while the passenger index measures changes in passenger travel. 

The TSI tells us how the output of transportation services has increased or decreased from month to month. The index can be examined together with other economic indicators to produce a better understanding of the current and future course of the economy.   The movement of the index over time can be compared with other economic measures to understand the relationship of changes in transportation output to changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

    
The freight transportation index consists of:
     For-hire trucking,
     Railroad freight services (including rail based intermodal shipments such as containers on flat cars),
     Inland waterways transportation,
     Pipeline transportation (including principally petroleum and petroleum products and natural gas), and
     Air freight.

The index does not include international or coastal waterborne movements, private trucking, courier services, or the US Postal Service.
  
The passenger transportation index consists of:
     Local transit, 
     Intercity passenger rail, and 
     Passenger air transportation. 

The index does not include intercity bus, sightseeing services, ferry services, taxi service, private automobile usage, or bicycling and other non-motorized transportation. 

The TSI includes only domestic "for-hire" freight and passenger transportation. For-hire transportation consists of freight or passenger transport services provided by a firm to external customers for a fee. The TSI does not include taxi services, paid ride services in personal motor vehicles (e.g., Uber, Lyft, etc.), intercity bus services, in-house transportation (vehicles owned and operated by private firms for their own use), or noncommercial passenger travel (e.g., trips in the household car).