March 11, 2024
(press release)
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New Zillow research suggests the spring home-shopping season may see a second wave if mortgage rates fall SEATTLE, March 7, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Spring home sellers looking to maximize their sale price may want to wait it out and list their home for sale in the first half of June. A new Zillow® analysis of 2023 sales found that homes listed in the first two weeks of June sold for 2.3% more, a $7,700 boost on a typical U.S. home. The best time to list consistently had been early May in the years leading up to the pandemic. The shift to June suggests mortgage rates are strongly influencing demand on top of the usual seasonality that brings buyers to the market in the spring. This home-shopping season is poised to follow a similar pattern as that in 2023, with the potential for a second wave if the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates midyear or later. The sale price premium registered last June followed the first spring in more than 15 years with mortgage rates over 6% on a 30-year fixed-rate loan. The high rates put home buyers on the back foot, and as rates continued upward through May, those prospective buyers were reassessing and less likely to bid boldly. In June, however, rates pulled back a little from 6.79% to 6.67%, which likely presented an opportunity for determined buyers heading into summer. More buyers understood their market position and could afford to transact, boosting competition and sale prices. "The old logic was that sellers could earn a premium by listing in late spring when their home would be on the top of the pile of listings when search activity was at its peak. Now, with persistently low inventory, mortgage rate fluctuations make their own seasonality," said Zillow Chief Economist Skylar Olsen. "First-time home buyers who are on the edge of qualifying for a home loan may dip in and out of the market, depending on what's happening with rates. It is almost certain the Federal Reserve will push back any interest-rate cuts to mid-2024 at the earliest. If mortgage rates follow, that could bring another surge of buyers later this year." Mortgage rates have been impacting affordability and sale prices since they began rising rapidly two years ago. In 2022, sellers nationwide saw the highest sale premium when they listed their home in late March, right before rates barreled past 5% and continued climbing. Zillow's research finds the best time to list can vary widely by metropolitan area. In 2023, it was as early as the second half of February in San Francisco, and as late as the first half of July in New York. Thirty of the top 35 largest metro areas saw for-sale listings command the highest sale prices between May and early July last year. Zillow also found a wide range in the sale price premiums associated with homes listed during those peak periods. At the hottest time of the year in San Jose, homes sold for 5.5% more, a $88,000 boost on a typical home. Meanwhile, homes in San Antonio sold for 1.9% more during that same time period. "Most sellers don't have the luxury of timing the market. The best time to list is when it makes the most sense for their lives," said Olsen. "Regardless of the month, sellers who list their home for sale this spring can expect plenty of interest if their home is marketed and priced right. That's why it's more important than ever to hire a real estate agent with the experience to localize your strategy when comparable sales might be further afield. Harvesting near record home equity to support your next purchase or retirement is still possible." Zillow data finds there are other unexpected ways to sell a home faster and for more money in today's market. These three tips can help: Metropolitan Area Best Time to List Price Premium Dollar Boost United States First half of June 2.3 % $7,700 New York, NY First half of July 2.4 % $15,500 Los Angeles, CA First half of May 4.1 % $39,300 Chicago, IL First half of June 2.8 % $8,800 Dallas, TX First half of June 2.5 % $9,200 Houston, TX Second half of April 2.0 % $6,200 Washington, DC Second half of June 2.2 % $12,700 Philadelphia, PA First half of July 2.4 % $8,200 Miami, FL First half of June 2.3 % $12,900 Atlanta, GA Second half of June 2.3 % $8,700 Boston, MA Second half of May 3.5 % $23,600 Phoenix, AZ First half of June 3.2 % $14,700 San Francisco, CA Second half of February 4.2 % $50,300 Riverside, CA First half of May 2.7 % $15,600 Detroit, MI First half of July 3.3 % $7,900 Seattle, WA First half of June 4.3 % $31,500 Minneapolis, MN Second half of May 3.7 % $13,400 San Diego, CA Second half of April 3.1 % $29,600 Tampa, FL Second half of June 2.1 % $8,000 Denver, CO Second half of May 2.9 % $16,900 Baltimore, MD First half of July 2.2 % $8,200 St. Louis, MO First half of June 2.9 % $7,000 Orlando, FL First half of June 2.2 % $8,700 Charlotte, NC Second half of May 3.0 % $11,000 San Antonio, TX First half of June 1.9 % $5,400 Portland, OR Second half of April 2.6 % $14,300 Sacramento, CA First half of June 3.2 % $17,900 Pittsburgh, PA Second half of June 2.3 % $4,700 Cincinnati, OH Second half of April 2.7 % $7,500 Austin, TX Second half of May 2.8 % $12,600 Las Vegas, NV First half of June 3.4 % $14,600 Kansas City, MO Second half of May 2.5 % $7,300 Columbus, OH Second half of June 3.3 % $10,400 Indianapolis, IN First half of July 3.0 % $8,100 Cleveland, OH First half of July 3.4 % $7,400 San Jose, CA First half of June 5.5 % $88,400 About Zillow Group Zillow Group, Inc. (Nasdaq: Z and ZG) is reimagining real estate to make home a reality for more and more people. As the most visited real estate website in the United States, Zillow and its affiliates help people find and get the home they want by connecting them with digital solutions, dedicated partners and agents, and easier buying, selling, financing and renting experiences. Zillow Group's affiliates, subsidiaries and brands include Zillow®, Zillow Premier Agent®, Zillow Home Loans℠, Trulia®, Out East®, StreetEasy®, HotPads®, ShowingTime+℠, Spruce® and Follow Up Boss®. All marks herein are owned by MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. Zillow Home Loans, LLC is an Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #10287 (www.nmlsconsumeraccess.org). © 2023 MFTB Holdco, Inc., a Zillow affiliate. SOURCE Zillow Group, Inc.
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