US homebuyers with a US$3,000 monthly housing budget can afford a US$419,000 home, down from US$457,000 in October 2022; high housing costs pushed demand down, while inventory declined significantly: Redfin

Sample article from our Housing & Economy

SEATTLE , October 9, 2023 (press release) –

A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has lost nearly $40,000 in purchasing power over the last year, as mortgage rates have risen from around 6.5% in October 2022 to nearly 8% today. The glimmer of hope for the housing market: a small September uptick in new listings.

Mortgage rates hit their highest level in more than 20 years this week, pushing homebuyers’ monthly housing payments to all-time highs. That’s according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage.

A buyer on a $3,000 monthly budget, for instance, can afford a $419,000 home with a 7.7% mortgage rate, roughly the daily average on October 4. That buyer has lost $38,000 in purchasing power since last October, when they could have bought a $457,000 home with a 6.6% rate. And by that time, buyers had already lost a significant amount of purchasing power since the start of the year, as mortgage rates doubled throughout 2022: A buyer on a $3,000 budget could have purchased a $595,000 home with the 3.5% rates common at the start of 2022.

In addition to sky-high mortgage rates, rising home prices are cutting into buyers’ budgets. The typical U.S. home sold for $371,000 during the four weeks ending October 1, up 3% from a year earlier. That’s because there aren’t enough homes for sale. High housing costs are pushing demand down, with mortgage-purchase applications dropping to their lowest level in nearly 30 years. But inventory is falling significantly, too, as homeowners hang onto relatively low rates: The total number of homes for sale is down 14%.

Why mortgage rates are rising–again: “There are several reasons why mortgage rates are still climbing,” said Redfin Economic Research Lead Chen Zhao. “The Fed hinted that another interest-rate hike before the end of the year is likely, the latest job market data came in stronger than expected, and the yield curve is steepening as investors prepare for higher rates for longer. Turmoil in Congress isn’t helping, either, as the clash among House Republicans stemming from the narrowly missed government shutdown is causing volatility in stock and bond markets.”

A glimmer of hope for the housing market: More homeowners are listing their homes for sale after months of steady decline. New listings rose 3% in September, and so far this fall listings haven’t declined as much from the summer as they typically do. That may be partly because listings didn’t have much more room to fall—but nonetheless, it’s a glimmer of hope for buyers because it means they have a bit more to choose from and could eventually ease price increases.

Leading indicators

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

 

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Source

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.7% (Oct. 4)

Highest level in over 2 decades

Up from 6.65%

Mortgage News Daily

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

7.31% (week ending Sept. 28)

Highest level in nearly 23 years

Up from 6.7%

Freddie Mac

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending Sept. 29)

Down 22% to lowest level in nearly 30 years

Mortgage Bankers Association

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index (seasonally adjusted)

 

Down 3% from a month earlier (as of the 4 weeks ending Oct. 1), close to its lowest level since January

Down 1%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index, a measure of requests for tours and other homebuying services from Redfin agents

Google searches for “home for sale”

 

Down 9% from a month earlier (as of Sept. 30)

Down 6%

Google Trends

 

Key housing-market data

U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending October 1, 2023

Redfin’s national metrics include data from 400+ U.S. metro areas, and is based on homes listed and/or sold during the period. Weekly housing-market data goes back through 2015. Subject to revision.

 

Four weeks ending October 1, 2023

Year-over-year change

Notes

Median sale price

$370,900

2.9%

Prices are up partly because elevated mortgage rates were hampering prices during this time last year

Median asking price

$389,950

4.6%

Biggest increase since Oct. 2022

Median monthly mortgage payment

$2,710 at a 7.31% mortgage rate

10%

All-time high

Pending sales

73,654

-12.5%

 

New listings

83,216

-3.4%

Smallest decline since July 2022, in part because new listings fell rapidly at this time in 2022

Active listings

826,882

-14%

 

Months of supply

3.3 months

+0.2 pts.

Highest level since March.

4 to 5 months of supply is considered balanced, with a lower number indicating seller’s market conditions.

Share of homes off market in two weeks

39.4%

Up from 35%

 

Median days on market

31

-2 days

 

Share of homes sold above list price

31.2%

Up from 30%

 

Share of homes with a price drop

6.6%

+0.2 pts.

Highest share since November 2022

Average sale-to-list price ratio

99.3%

+0.2 pts.

 

 

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending October 1, 2023

Redfin’s metro-level data includes the 50 most populous U.S. metros. Select metros may be excluded from time to time to ensure data accuracy.

 

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year declines

Notes

Median sale price

Anaheim, CA (13%)

New Brunswick, NJ (10.6%)

Providence, RI (10.5%)

Newark, NJ (9.1%)

San Jose, CA (9.1%)

Austin, TX (-4.1%)

Houston, TX (-2.8%)

San Francisco (-2.1%)

San Antonio, TX (-1.5%)

Phoenix (-1.3%)

Nashville, TN (-1.1%)

Las Vegas (-0.8%)

Portland, OR (-0.1%)

Declined in 8 metros

Pending sales

West Palm Beach, FL (1.8%)

New York (-31.2%)

New Brunswick, NY (-24.1%)

Portland, OR (-22.2%)

Atlanta (-22.2%)

Virginia Beach, VA (-20.3%)

Declined in all but 1 metro

New listings

Orlando, FL (14.2%)

Jacksonville, FL (10.6%)

West Palm Beach, FL (9.4%)

Miami (8.1%)

San Jose, CA (6.9%)

Atlanta (-28.3%)

Newark, NJ (-17%)

Portland, OR (-15.2%)

Providence, RI (-14.2%)

Chicago (-14%)

Declined in all but 12 metros

 

To view the full report, including charts, please visit:
https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-mortgage-rates-soar-new-listings-hold-steady

About Redfin

Redfin (www.redfin.com) is a technology-powered real estate company. We help people find a place to live with brokerage, rentals, lending, title insurance, and renovations services. We sell homes for more money and charge half the fee. We also run the country's #1 real estate brokerage site. Our home-buying customers see homes first with on-demand tours, and our lending and title services help them close quickly. Customers selling a home in certain markets can have our renovations crew fix up their home to sell for top dollar. Our rentals business empowers millions nationwide to find apartments and houses for rent. Customers who buy and sell with Redfin pay a 1% listing fee, subject to minimums, less than half of what brokerages commonly charge. Since launching in 2006, we've saved customers more than $1.5 billion in commissions. We serve more than 100 markets across the U.S. and Canada and employ over 5,000 people.

For more information or to contact a local Redfin real estate agent, visit www.redfin.com. To learn about housing market trends and download data, visit the Redfin Data Center. To be added to Redfin's press release distribution list, email press@redfin.com. To view Redfin's press center, click here.


View source version on businesswire.com: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231005506542/en/

Contact Redfin
Redfin Journalist Services:
Kenneth Applewhaite, 206-588-6863
press@redfin.com

Source: Redfin

Released October 5, 2023

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