University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posts preliminary November level of 54.7, down from October's 59.9; buying conditions for durables fell 21% due to high interest rates and continued high prices

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LONDON , November 11, 2022 (press release) –

Preliminary Results for November 2022

  Nov Oct Nov M-M Y-Y
  2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 54.7 59.9 67.4 -8.7% -18.8%
Current Economic Conditions 57.8 65.6 73.6 -11.9% -21.5%
Index of Consumer Expectations 52.7 56.2 63.5 -6.2% -17.0%

 

Read our November 4th report, Expected Outcomes and Economic Implications of Midterm Elections.
Next data release: Wednesday, November 23, 2022 for Final November data at 10am ET

Surveys of Consumers Marks Leadership Change

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment fell about 9% below October, erasing about half of the gains that had been recorded since the historic low in June. All components of the index declined from last month, but buying conditions for durables, which had markedly improved last month, decreased most sharply in November, falling back 21% on the basis of high interest rates as well as continued high prices. Overall, declines in sentiment were observed across the distribution of age, education, income, geography, and political affiliation, showing that the recent improvements in sentiment were tentative. Instability in sentiment is likely to continue, a reflection of uncertainty over both global factors and the eventual outcomes of the election.

Inflation expectations are little changed. The median expected year-ahead inflation rate was 5.1%, up from 5.0% last month. Long run inflation expectations, currently at 3.0%, have remained in the narrow (albeit elevated) 2.9-3.1% range for 15 of the last 16 months.

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