University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posts preliminary June level of 63.9, up from May's 59.2; sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened

June 16, 2023 (press release) –

Preliminary Results for June 2023

Read our April 28th report, Confidence in Financial Institutions.
Next data release: Friday, June 30, 2023 for Final June data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment lifted 8% in June, reaching its highest level in four months, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The outlook over the economy surged 28% over the short run and 14% over the long run. Sentiment is now 28% above the historic low from a year ago and may be resuming its upward trajectory since then. As it stands, though, sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened. A majority of consumers still expect difficult times in the economy over the next year.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the second consecutive month, falling to 3.3% in June from 4.2% in May. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021. In contrast, long-run inflation expectations were little changed from May at 3.0%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 22 of the last 23 months. Long-run inflation expectations remained elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic.

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