University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posts final October reading of 59.9, up from September's 58.6; buying conditions for durables surged 23% month-over-month as prices and supply constraints eased

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October 28, 2022 (press release) –

Final Results for October 2022

  Oct Sep Oct M-M Y-Y
  2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 59.9 58.6 71.7 +2.2% -16.5%
Current Economic Conditions 65.6 59.7 77.7 +9.9% -15.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations 56.2 58.0 67.9 -3.1% -17.2%

 

Read our October 21st report, Stock Ownership and Stock Price Expectations.
Next data release: Friday, November 11, 2022 for Preliminary November data at 10am ET

Surveys of Consumers Marks Leadership Change

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month, inching up just 1.3 index points from September. With sentiment sitting only 10 index points above the all-time low reached in June, the recent news of a slowdown in consumer spending in the third quarter comes as no surprise. This month, buying conditions for durables surged 23% on the basis of easing prices and supply constraints. However, year-ahead expected business conditions worsened 19%. These divergent patterns reflect substantial uncertainty over inflation, policy responses, and developments worldwide, and consumer views are consistent with a recession ahead in the economy. While lower-income consumers reported sizable gains in overall sentiment, consumers with considerable stock market and housing wealth exhibited notable declines in sentiment, weighed down by tumult in those markets. Given consumers' ongoing unease over the economy, most notably this month among higher-income consumers, any continued weakening in incomes or wealth could lead to further pullbacks in spending that would reinforce other risks of recession.

The median expected year-ahead inflation rate rose to 5.0%, with increases reported across age, income, and education. Last month, long run inflation expectations fell below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021, but since then expectations have reverted to 2.9%. Uncertainty over inflation expectations remains elevated, indicating that inflation expectations are likely to remain unstable in the months ahead.

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