September 29, 2023
(press release)
–
Final Results for September 2023 Read our September 8th report, Interest Rate and Price Pressures on Consumers. Year-ahead inflation expectations moderated from 3.5% last month to 3.2% this month. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021 and is above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.8%, falling below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for only the second time in the last 26 months. In comparison, long-run inflation expectations ranged between 2.2 and 2.6% in the two years pre-pandemic.
Sep
Aug
Sep
M-M
Y-Y
2023
2023
2022
Change
Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment
68.1
69.5
58.6
-2.0%
+16.2%
Current Economic Conditions
71.4
75.7
59.7
-5.7%
+19.6%
Index of Consumer Expectations
66.0
65.5
58.0
+0.8%
+13.8%
Next data release: Friday, October 13, 2023 for Preliminary October data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and was little changed this month, slipping a mere 1.4 index points from August and remaining 16% higher than a year ago. A small decline in consumer expectations over their personal finances was offset by a modest improvement in expected business conditions. Consumers are understandably unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry. Until more information emerges about these developments, though, consumers have reserved judgement on whether economic conditions have materially changed from the past few months.
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