UK activity across private sector in three months to October fell for third straight rolling quarter, down 15%; decline in economic activity largely driven by services: CBI

Sample article from our Housing & Economy

LONDON , October 31, 2022 (press release) –

Private sector activity fell in the three months to October (-15% from -19% in September) marking the third consecutive rolling quarter of decline, according to the CBI’s latest Growth Indicator. The contraction looks set to continue over the next quarter (-12%).

The fall in economic activity over the last quarter was largely driven by services (-26% from -25% in September), with business volumes in both business & professional services (-19% from -14%) and consumer services (-49% from -57%) shrinking significantly.

Meanwhile, distribution sales rebounded in September (+8% from -13%), with retailing and wholesaling posting strong growth over the past three months.

Looking ahead to the next three months, services are expected to see a slower decline (-17% from -26%), while distribution sales (-16% from +8%) are anticipated to contract once again. The outlook for manufacturing is relatively more optimistic, with growth expected to return to positive territory (+7 from -4%).

Separate data from our surveys also shows that business optimism fell sharply in the quarter to October. Across manufacturing (-48%) and services (-58%), sentiment deteriorated at the fastest pace since the onset of the COVID pandemic in Q2 2020 (-87% and -81% respectively).

Alpesh Paleja, CBI Lead Economist, said: 

“Notwithstanding a mixed picture across sectors, the private sector continues to face considerable headwinds. Amid rising costs, labour shortages and demand waning, businesses foresee a continued fall in activity over the next three months.

“In this time of economic uncertainty, the essential precondition for a return to growth must be to re-establish macroeconomic stability. Only once firms are able to plan for the future with some measure of confidence will government action to support growth – for example, through reform on business rates and the Apprenticeship Levy – bear fruit.”

* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.

See our dashboard in action - schedule an demo
Chelsey Quick
Chelsey Quick
- VP Client Success -

We offer built-to-order housing & economy coverage for our clients. Contact us for a free consultation.

About Us

We deliver market news & information relevant to your business.

We monitor all your market drivers.

We aggregate, curate, filter and map your specific needs.

We deliver the right information to the right person at the right time.

Our Contacts

1990 S Bundy Dr. Suite #380,
Los Angeles, CA 90025

+1 (310) 553 0008

About Cookies On This Site

We collect data, including through use of cookies and similar technology ("cookies") that enchance the online experience. By clicking "I agree", you agree to our cookies, agree to bound by our Terms of Use, and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. For more information on our data practices and how to exercise your privacy rights, please see our Privacy Policy.