October 10, 2022
(press release)
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Further—but Slower—Job Growth Anticipated in the Months Ahead The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ (ETI) increased in September to 120.17, up from a downwardly revised 118.48 in August 2022. The Employment Trends Index is a leading composite index for employment. When the index increases, employment is likely to increase as well, and vice versa. Turning points in the index indicate that a turning point in the number of jobs is about to occur in the coming months. “The ETI increased in September 2022, signaling that employment will continue to grow over the coming months,” said Frank Steemers, Senior Economist at The Conference Board. “However, job gains are likely to decelerate from their recent pace as the US economy has weakened as the Federal Reserve rapidly raises interest rates. In addition, most industries have recovered their pandemic-induced job losses, which is further bringing down the pace of hiring.” Steemers added: “Some easing to labor shortages is expected as the demand for workers diminishes. However, recruitment and retention difficulties will not disappear as the unemployment rate is only projected to rise to around 4.5 percent in 2023 and labor supply remains challenged. In this environment, wage growth may also remain elevated. Companies will need to prepare for continued labor shortages and further improve their sourcing and retention strategies to remain competitive.” September’s increase in the Employment Trends Index was driven by positive contributions from seven of eight components. From the largest positive contributor to the smallest, these were: Ratio of Involuntarily Part-time to All Part-time Workers, Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance, Job Openings, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Number of Employees Hired by the Temporary-Help Industry, Percentage of Respondents Who Say They Find “Jobs Hard to Get”, and Industrial Production. The Employment Trends Index aggregates eight leading indicators of employment, each of which has proven accurate in its own area. Aggregating individual indicators into a composite index filters out “noise” to show underlying trends more clearly. The Conference Board Employment Trends Index ™, January 2000 to Present The eight leading indicators of employment aggregated into the Employment Trends Index include: *Statistical imputation for the recent month **Statistical imputation for two most recent months The Conference Board publishes the Employment Trends Index monthly, at 10 a.m. ET, on the Monday that follows each Friday release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Situation report. The technical notes to this series are available on The Conference Board website: http://www.conference-board.org/data/eti.cfm. About The Conference Board The Conference Board is the member-driven think tank that delivers trusted insights for what’s ahead. Founded in 1916, we are a non-partisan, not-for-profit entity holding 501 (c) (3) tax-exempt status in the United States. www.conference-board.org. Employment Trends Index (ETI)™ 2022 Publication Schedule Index Release Date (10 AM ET) Data for the Month Monday, February 7 January 2022 Monday, March 7 February Monday, April 4 March Monday, May 9 April Monday, June 6 May Monday, July 11 June Monday, August 8 July Tuesday, September 6* August Monday, October 10 September Monday, November 7 October Monday, December 5 November * Tuesday release due to holiday The Conference Board Employment Trends Index™ and turning points, November 1973 to Present For further information contact: Joseph DiBlasi
781.308.7935
JDiBlasi@tcb.org
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