Commentary: 'Extreme heat belt' where temperatures can reach above 125 degrees to impact 107 million Americans by 2053, from 8.1 million in 2023, predicts nonprofit; area stretches from northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana, Wisconsin

Sample article from our Housing & Economy

August 16, 2022 (press release) –

Brooklyn (NY) – (August 15, 2022) – First Street Foundation today released their peer-reviewed extreme heat model along with the implications highlighted in The 6th National Risk Assessment: Hazardous Heat. The report identifies the impact of increasing temperatures at a property level, and how the frequency, duration, and intensity of extremely hot days will change over the next 30 years from a changing climate. The Foundation’s analysis combines high-resolution measurements of land surface temperatures, canopy cover, impervious surfaces, land cover, and proximity to water to calculate the current heat exposure, and then adjusts for future forecasted emissions scenarios. This allows for the determination of the number of days any property would be expected to experience dangerous levels of heat.

The model highlights the local impacts of climate change by identifying the seven hottest days expected for any property this year, and using that metric to calculate how many of those days would be experienced in 30 years. The most severe shift in local temperatures is found in Miami-Dade County where the 7 hottest days, currently at 103°F, will increase to 34 days at that same temperature by 2053. Across the country, on average, the local hottest 7 days are expected to become the hottest 18 days by 2053.

In the case of extreme heat, the model finds 50 counties, home to 8.1 million residents, that are expected to experience temperatures above 125°F in 2023, the highest level of the National Weather Services’ heat index. By 2053,1,023 counties are expected to exceed this temperature, an area that is home to 107.6 million Americans and covers a quarter of the US land area. This emerging area, concentrated in a geographic region the Foundation calls the “Extreme Heat Belt,” stretches from the Northern Texas and Louisiana borders to Illinois, Indiana, and even into Wisconsin.

“Increasing temperatures are broadly discussed as averages, but the focus should be on the extension of the extreme tail events expected in a given year,” said Matthew Eby, founder and CEO of First Street Foundation. “We need to be prepared for the inevitable, that a quarter of the country will soon fall inside the Extreme Heat Belt with temperatures exceeding 125°F and the results will be dire.”

The peer-reviewed First Street Foundation Extreme Heat Model will now be incorporated with Risk Factor for every property in the contiguous United States. Visitors to Risk Factor will find their Heat Factor alongside their Flood Factor and Fire Factor and can learn the specific risks to their property, today and up to 30 years into the future.

First Street Foundation is a nonprofit 501(c)(3) research and technology group working to define America’s growing climate risk.

* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.

More from our Housing & Economy Coverage
See our dashboard in action - schedule an demo
Jason Irving
Jason Irving
- SVP Enterprise Solutions -

We offer built-to-order housing & economy coverage for our clients. Contact us for a free consultation.

About Us

We deliver market news & information relevant to your business.

We monitor all your market drivers.

We aggregate, curate, filter and map your specific needs.

We deliver the right information to the right person at the right time.

Our Contacts

1990 S Bundy Dr. Suite #380,
Los Angeles, CA 90025

+1 (310) 553 0008

About Cookies On This Site

We collect data, including through use of cookies and similar technology ("cookies") that enchance the online experience. By clicking "I agree", you agree to our cookies, agree to bound by our Terms of Use, and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. For more information on our data practices and how to exercise your privacy rights, please see our Privacy Policy.