GlobalData forecasts Eli Lilly's Mounjaro drug to outperform Novo Nordisk's Ozempic in obesity and diabetes sector with US$27B sales in 2029, citing Mounjaro’s superior efficacy over Ozempic in meta-analysis of 22 trials

Sample article from our Health Care Sector

December 19, 2023 (press release) –

Novo Nordisk‘s Ozempic (semaglutide) took the weight loss sector by storm in 2023, propelled by strong efficacy and safety data, coupled with social media buzz and celebrity endorsements that elevated the drug to mainstream prominence. However, a potential challenger has emerged in the form of Eli Lilly‘s Mounjaro (tirzepatide), which secured FDA approval for obesity in November 2023. Coupled with compelling clinical data and forecast sales of $27 billion in 2029, Mounjaro is poised to surpass Ozempic and become the leading drug by sales in the obesity and diabetes market, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.

Mounjaro, also marketed as Zepbound, is a first-in-class drug developed by Eli Lilly. This dual GIPR and GLP1R inhibitor works by stimulating the adenylyl cyclase pathway, leading to enhanced insulin synthesis and release. It was first approved in the US in May 2022 for the treatment of type 2 diabetes and was subsequently approved for obesity in the US and UK in November 2023.

Mounjaro’s superior efficacy over Ozempic has been demonstrated in a prominent meta-analysis of 22 trials released in October 2023 by Rodriquez and colleagues. The study found that Mounjaro’s high, medium, and low doses (15mg, 10mg, and 5mg) outperformed Ozempic’s corresponding high, medium, and low doses (2mg, 1mg, and 0.5mg) in reducing diabetes biomarkers. Moreover, the lowest approved dose of Mounjaro, 5mg, demonstrated superior weight loss efficacy compared to Ozempic’s 1mg and 0.5mg injectable doses.

Kevin Marcaida, Pharma Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Ozempic is forecast to lead in sales in the short-term, having secured its first approval in May 2017, five years ahead of Mounjaro. However, Mounjaro’s sales forecast considers its superior clinical efficacy, positioning it to surpass Ozempic in 2027 and excel in terms of annual growth rates.”

Mounjaro is expected to achieve an impressive compound annual growth rate of 36%, outpacing Ozempic’s 6.5%, over the next seven years. Mounjaro’s strong forecast is primarily attributed to its November 2023 FDA approval for obesity, with the US anticipated to be its most lucrative market, accounting for 76% of total sales from 2023 to 2029. These forecasts are further bolstered by a UK Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approval for obesity alongside a Canada drug launch for type 2 diabetes in the same month.

Marcaida concludes: “Mounjaro is expected to become the leading drug by sales by 2029 for the obesity and diabetes market, surpassing and slimming down competitors’ market share including Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy, Rybelsus, and CagriSema and AstraZeneca’s Forxiga. Mounjaro’s trajectory positions Eli Lilly as a significant player in the obesity and diabetes pharmaceutical market, establishing a strong presence alongside Novo Nordisk.”

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