New Zealand could see new opportunities for shipments of logs and lumber to Australia in coming decade, if rising global lumber prices push up cost of European imports; quality would need to be higher than for logs shipped to China: WRI Market Insights

Sample article from our Forestry & Timberland

July 25, 2023 (press release) –

Australian exporters receive new opportunities to ship logs to China following a 2.5-year ban, but exports are not anticipated to reach historic levels.

At the end of 2020, China banned the importation of plantation pine logs from Australia, stating that bark beetles had infected the logs. This decision resulted in a collapse of Australian exports as China was practically the only log market being served. As a result, total shipments from Australia fell from over 3.5 million m3 annually during 2016-2020 to less than 400,000 m3 in 2022 (see chart).


When the ban was implemented, Australian log traders started exploring alternative destinations in Asia and, in 2021, shipped about 1.2 million m3 of logs to previously insignificant markets, including India, South Korea, and Vietnam (as reported on the new platform WoodMarket Prices (Wood Resources International). However, the jump in shipments to those markets was short-lived, and a sharp drop occurred in 2022, partly because of increased competition from US log exporters. The decline continued in early

2023, with only 27,000 m3 being shipped in the first three months of the year, compared to 112,000 m3 during the same period in 2022. Australia will likely have opportunities to reestablish trade with China now that the ban has been lifted, but shipments will probably not reach levels seen in the past.

Previously, a large share of the pine logs Australia shipped to China was of lower grades, close to "pulplog" material-type wood, which was less desirable for Australian sawmills. However, the domestic industry in Australia will increasingly compete with the export market for small-diameter logs as log supply tightens across the country. With the limited expansion in pine plantations over the past 30 years (0.3% annually), the domestic timber supply is unlikely to increase in the coming decades. In addition, many large pine plantations were destroyed by fires in 2019 and 2020 (roughly 6% of the plantation area), which will even further limit log availability for domestic sawmills in the short- and medium-term horizons.

Three venues can meet a predicted increase in lumber demand in Australia: 1. Upgraded sawmills that can utilize smaller logs and increase their lumber yields, 2. Increased lumber imports, and 3. Decreased log exports.

However, with the outlook of softwood lumber prices increasing worldwide, the importation of lumber from Europe could become costlier. This scenario could open opportunities for shipments of logs and lumber from New Zealand to Australia in the coming decade (this would require higher timber qualities than for logs shipped to China). To have sufficient domestic softwood timber supply longer-term, the conifer plantation area in Australia must be significantly increased.

Wood Resource Quarterly has been digitized and is now available as an interactive online business intelligence platform, WoodMarket Prices (WMP). The pricing data service, established in 1988, has subscribers in over 30 countries. The WMP tracks prices for sawlog, pulpwood, lumber & pellets and reports on trade and wood market developments in most key regions worldwide. For more insights on the WMP platform, a unique and valuable tool for every organisation that requires updates on the latest developments of global forest products markets, please go to Global Wood Prices

Contact Information

Wood Resources International, a ResourceWise Company Hakan Ekstrom, Seattle, USA

* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.

See our dashboard in action - schedule an demo
Chelsey Quick
Chelsey Quick
- VP Client Success -

We offer built-to-order forestry & timberland coverage for our clients. Contact us for a free consultation.

About Us

We deliver market news & information relevant to your business.

We monitor all your market drivers.

We aggregate, curate, filter and map your specific needs.

We deliver the right information to the right person at the right time.

Our Contacts

1990 S Bundy Dr. Suite #380,
Los Angeles, CA 90025

+1 (310) 553 0008

About Cookies On This Site

We collect data, including through use of cookies and similar technology ("cookies") that enchance the online experience. By clicking "I agree", you agree to our cookies, agree to bound by our Terms of Use, and acknowledge our Privacy Policy. For more information on our data practices and how to exercise your privacy rights, please see our Privacy Policy.