September 15, 2023
(press release)
–
Preliminary Results for September 2023 Read our September 8th report, Interest Rate and Price Pressures on Consumers. Throughout the survey, consumers have taken note of the stalling slowdown in inflation, but they do expect the slowdown to resume. Year-ahead inflation expectations moderated from 3.5% last month to 3.1% this month. The current reading is the lowest since March 2021 and is just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations came in at 2.7%, falling below the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for only the second time in the last 26 months. In comparison, long-run inflation expectations ranged between 2.2 and 2.6% in the two years pre-pandemic.
Sep
Aug
Sep
M-M
Y-Y
2023
2023
2022
Change
Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment
67.7
69.5
58.6
-2.6%
+15.5%
Current Economic Conditions
69.8
75.7
59.7
-7.8%
+16.9%
Index of Consumer Expectations
66.3
65.5
58.0
+1.2%
+14.3%
Next data release: Friday, September 29, 2023 for Final September data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment inched down a scant 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86. Sentiment this month was characterized by divergent movements across index components and across demographic groups with little net change from last month. Notably, though, both short-run and long-run expectations for economic conditions improved modestly this month, though on net consumers remain relatively tentative about the trajectory of the economy. So far, few consumers mentioned the potential federal government shutdown, but if the shutdown comes to bear, consumer views on the economy will likely slide, as was the case just a few months ago when the debt ceiling neared a breach.
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