University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posts preliminary September level of 59.5, up from August's 58.2; high consumer uncertainty over short-run inflation at levels last seen in 1982

Sample article from our Consumer Wellness

September 16, 2022 (press release) –

Preliminary Results for September 2022

  Sep Aug Sep M-M Y-Y
  2022 2022 2021 Change Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment 59.5 58.2 72.8 +2.2% -18.3%
Current Economic Conditions 58.9 58.6 80.1 +0.5% -26.5%
Index of Consumer Expectations 59.9 58.0 68.1 +3.3% -12.0%

 

Next data release: Friday, September 30, 2022 for Final September data at 10am ET

Surveys of Consumers Marks Leadership Change

Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment was essentially unchanged in September, just 1.3 index points above August. The one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook. Personal finance components of the index as well as buying conditions for durables remained at similar, relatively low levels from last month. After the marked improvement in sentiment in August, consumers showed signs of uncertainty over the trajectory of the economy.

With continued declines in energy prices, the median expected year-ahead inflation rate declined to 4.6%, the lowest reading since last September. At 2.8%, median long run inflation expectations fell below the 2.9-3.1% range for the first time since July 2021. However, it is unclear if these improvements will persist, as consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future trajectory of prices (see chart). Uncertainty over short-run inflation reached levels last seen in 1982, and uncertainty over long run inflation rose from 3.9 to 4.5 this month, well above the 3.4 level seen last September.

Industry Intelligence Editor's Note: This press release omits select charts and/or marketing language for editorial clarity. Click here to view the full report.

 

 

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