January 13, 2023
(press release)
–
Preliminary Results for January 2023 Read our November 18th report, Five Patterns in Consumer Responses to Inflation. Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the fourth straight month, falling to 4.0% in January from 4.4% in December. The current reading is the lowest since April 2021 but remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations were little changed from December at 3.0%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 17 of the last 18 months. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Uncertainty over both inflation expectations measures remains high, and changes in global factors in the months ahead may generate a reversal in recent improvements.
Jan
Dec
Jan
M-M
Y-Y
2023
2022
2022
Change
Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment
64.6
59.7
67.2
+8.2%
-3.9%
Current Economic Conditions
68.6
59.4
72.0
+15.5%
-4.7%
Index of Consumer Expectations
62.0
59.9
64.1
+3.5%
-3.3%
Next data release: Friday, January 27, 2023 for Final January data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment remained low from a historical perspective but continued lifting for the second consecutive month, rising 8% above December and reaching about 4% below a year ago. Current assessments of personal finances surged 16% to its highest reading in eight months on the basis of higher incomes and easing inflation. Although the short-run economic outlook fell modestly from December, the long-run outlook rose 7% to its highest level in nine months and is now 17% below its historical average.
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