TrueCar forecasts March total new vehicle sales at 1,246,993 units, down 25% from a year ago, up 5% from February; online searches for EVs, hybrids jump on TrueCar website, with EV searches up 380% year-over-year, hybrid searches up 180%

Sample article from our Automobile Industry

SANTA MONICA, California , March 31, 2022 (press release) –

EV and hybrid vehicle demand skyrockets amid surging fuel prices

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,246,993 units in March 2022, down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 13.6 million, down 23% from March 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,084,168 units, down 24% from a year ago and up 2% from February 2022.

"Over the last month we've seen a huge spike in electric vehicle and hybrid prospects on the TrueCar site, with a 380% increase year-over-year for EVs and a 180% jump year-over-year for hybrids," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "This is the largest monthly jump we've ever seen and understandably so with current fuel prices."

"This month in spite of low inventory, we're seeing mild fleet recovery as we head into the summer season," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from TrueCar):

  • Total sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 25% from a year ago and up 5% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for March 2022 are expected to be down 30% from a year ago and up 31% from February 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 54% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down 1% from February 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 23% from a year ago at 13.6 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for March 2022 are expected to reach 3.6 million, down 13% from a year ago and up 11% from February 2022. 
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for March 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.
  • Quarterly average transaction price is projected to be up 16% from a year ago and up 3.5% from Q4 2021.
  • Quarterly incentive spend is down 51% from Q1 2021.

Total Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

24,275

31,888

26,074

-23.9%

-26.7%

-6.9%

-17.2%

Daimler

20,384

24,651

19,237

-17.3%

-20.4%

6.0%

-5.8%

Ford

154,405

213,300

128,229

-27.6%

-30.3%

20.4%

7.0%

GM

205,018

245,606

161,705

-16.5%

-19.6%

26.8%

12.7%

Honda

103,045

148,538

84,394

-30.6%

-33.2%

22.1%

8.5%

Hyundai

69,504

78,409

55,906

-11.4%

-14.6%

24.3%

10.5%

Kia

62,609

66,523

49,182

-5.9%

-9.4%

27.3%

13.2%

Nissan

75,308

128,334

61,674

-41.3%

-43.5%

22.1%

8.5%

Stellantis

153,375

183,333

136,580

-16.3%

-19.4%

12.3%

-0.2%

Subaru

47,605

65,726

44,866

-27.6%

-30.3%

6.1%

-5.7%

Tesla

44,525

23,050

42,742

93.2%

86.0%

4.2%

-7.4%

Toyota

179,919

256,485

160,645

-29.9%

-32.5%

12.0%

-0.4%

Volkswagen Group

39,159

70,276

36,355

-44.3%

-46.3%

7.7%

-4.3%

Industry

1,246,993

1,604,983

1,057,945

-22.3%

-25.2%

17.9%

4.8%

 

Retail Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

23,710

30,576

25,623

-22.5%

-25.3%

-7.5%

-17.7%

Daimler

19,338

23,903

18,843

-19.1%

-22.1%

2.6%

-8.8%

Ford

115,884

166,090

104,219

-30.2%

-32.8%

11.2%

-1.2%

GM

157,090

215,813

140,659

-27.2%

-29.9%

11.7%

-0.7%

Honda

102,017

145,541

84,040

-29.9%

-32.5%

21.4%

7.9%

Hyundai

69,399

68,605

55,320

1.2%

-2.6%

25.5%

11.5%

Kia

58,517

55,144

47,352

6.1%

2.2%

23.6%

9.8%

Nissan

66,004

85,771

50,977

-23.0%

-25.9%

29.5%

15.1%

Stellantis

117,910

157,102

114,162

-24.9%

-27.7%

3.3%

-8.2%

Subaru

46,351

63,925

43,193

-27.5%

-30.2%

7.3%

-4.6%

Tesla

44,174

23,050

42,727

91.6%

84.5%

3.4%

-8.1%

Toyota

164,823

226,277

141,838

-27.2%

-29.9%

16.2%

3.3%

Volkswagen Group

38,370

62,461

35,820

-38.6%

-40.8%

7.1%

-4.8%

Industry

1,084,168

1,380,536

947,445

-21.5%

-24.4%

14.4%

1.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

1,312

451

-56.9%

-58.5%

25.4%

11.5%

Daimler

1,046

748

394

39.9%

34.7%

165.8%

136.3%

Ford

38,521

47,210

24,010

-18.4%

-21.4%

60.4%

42.6%

GM

47,928

29,793

21,046

60.9%

54.9%

127.7%

102.4%

Honda

1,028

2,997

354

-65.7%

-67.0%

190.7%

158.4%

Hyundai

105

9,804

586

-98.9%

-99.0%

-82.1%

-84.1%

Kia

4,092

11,379

1,830

-64.0%

-65.4%

123.6%

98.8%

Nissan

9,304

42,563

10,697

-78.1%

-79.0%

-13.0%

-22.7%

Stellantis

35,465

26,231

22,418

35.2%

30.2%

58.2%

40.6%

Subaru

1,254

1,801

1,673

-30.4%

-33.0%

-25.0%

-33.4%

Tesla

351

-

15

   

2308.7%

2041.0%

Toyota

15,096

30,208

18,807

-50.0%

-51.9%

-19.7%

-28.7%

Volkswagen Group

789

7,815

535

-89.9%

-90.3%

47.4%

31.0%

Industry

162,826

224,447

110,500

-27.5%

-30.1%

47.4%

31.0%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

2.3%

4.1%

1.7%

-43.4%

34.7%

Daimler

5.1%

3.0%

2.0%

69.2%

150.9%

Ford

24.9%

22.1%

18.7%

12.7%

33.2%

GM

23.4%

12.1%

13.0%

92.7%

79.6%

Honda

1.0%

2.0%

0.4%

-50.6%

138.1%

Hyundai

0.2%

12.5%

1.0%

-98.8%

-85.6%

Kia

6.5%

17.1%

3.7%

-61.8%

75.7%

Nissan

12.4%

33.2%

17.3%

-62.7%

-28.8%

Stellantis

23.1%

14.3%

16.4%

61.6%

40.9%

Subaru

2.6%

2.7%

3.7%

-3.9%

-29.3%

Tesla

0.8%

0.0%

0.0%

 

2212.2%

Toyota

8.4%

11.8%

11.7%

-28.8%

-28.3%

Volkswagen Group

2.0%

11.1%

1.5%

-81.9%

36.8%

Industry

13.1%

14.0%

10.4%

-6.6%

25.0%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

BMW

1.9%

2.0%

2.5%

Daimler

1.6%

1.5%

1.8%

Ford

12.4%

13.3%

12.1%

GM

16.4%

15.3%

15.3%

Honda

8.3%

9.3%

8.0%

Hyundai

5.6%

4.9%

5.3%

Kia

5.0%

4.1%

4.6%

Nissan

6.0%

8.0%

5.8%

Stellantis

12.3%

11.4%

12.9%

Subaru

3.8%

4.1%

4.2%

Tesla

3.6%

1.4%

4.0%

Toyota

14.4%

16.0%

15.2%

Volkswagen Group

3.1%

4.4%

3.4%

 

94.6%

95.7%

95.2%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

BMW

2.2%

2.2%

2.7%

Daimler

1.8%

1.7%

2.0%

Ford

10.7%

12.0%

11.0%

GM

14.5%

15.6%

14.8%

Honda

9.4%

10.5%

8.9%

Hyundai

6.4%

5.0%

5.8%

Kia

5.4%

4.0%

5.0%

Nissan

6.1%

6.2%

5.4%

Stellantis

10.9%

11.4%

12.0%

Subaru

4.3%

4.6%

4.6%

Tesla

4.1%

1.7%

4.5%

Toyota

15.2%

16.4%

15.0%

Volkswagen Group

3.5%

4.5%

3.8%

 

94.4%

95.9%

95.5%

 

ATP

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$66,225

$60,360

$62,852

9.7%

5.4%

Daimler

$70,685

$62,111

$73,946

13.8%

-4.4%

Ford

$47,621

$45,155

$48,294

5.5%

-1.4%

GM

$49,878

$43,134

$51,105

15.6%

-2.4%

Honda

$37,585

$31,938

$37,017

17.7%

1.5%

Hyundai

$36,133

$29,739

$36,767

21.5%

-1.7%

Kia

$34,346

$29,387

$33,163

16.9%

3.6%

Nissan

$33,032

$28,741

$32,546

14.9%

1.5%

Stellantis

$53,320

$44,135

$52,515

20.8%

1.5%

Subaru

$34,516

$30,894

$34,334

11.7%

0.5%

Toyota

$40,431

$34,980

$39,992

15.6%

1.1%

Volkswagen Group

$46,153

$43,549

$46,598

6.0%

-1.0%

Industry

$43,462

$37,676

$43,879

15.4%

-1.0%

 

$5,786

 

-$417

   

 

Incentives

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$2,237

$4,997

$2,582

-55.2%

-13.3%

Daimler

$2,053

$4,221

$2,243

-51.4%

-8.5%

Ford

$1,687

$3,034

$1,748

-44.4%

-3.5%

GM

$1,888

$4,836

$1,963

-61.0%

-3.8%

Honda

$1,109

$2,382

$1,159

-53.5%

-4.3%

Hyundai

$1,070

$2,541

$950

-57.9%

12.6%

Kia

$1,140

$2,817

$1,239

-59.5%

-8.0%

Nissan

$1,550

$3,331

$1,789

-53.5%

-13.4%

Stellantis

$2,574

$4,640

$2,570

-44.5%

0.1%

Subaru

$837

$1,275

$856

-34.3%

-2.2%

Toyota

$981

$2,774

$1,058

-64.6%

-7.3%

Volkswagen Group

$2,061

$4,001

$1,874

-48.5%

9.9%

Industry

$1,581

$3,424

$1,657

-53.8%

-4.6%

 

-$1,843

 

-$76

   

 

Incentives as % of ATP

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

3.4%

8.3%

4.1%

-59.2%

-17.7%

Daimler

2.9%

6.8%

3.0%

-57.3%

-4.2%

Ford

3.5%

6.7%

3.6%

-47.3%

-2.1%

GM

3.8%

11.2%

3.8%

-66.2%

-1.5%

Honda

3.0%

7.5%

3.1%

-60.4%

-5.7%

Hyundai

3.0%

8.5%

2.6%

-65.4%

14.6%

Kia

3.3%

9.6%

3.7%

-65.4%

-11.2%

Nissan

4.7%

11.6%

5.5%

-59.5%

-14.6%

Stellantis

4.8%

10.5%

4.9%

-54.1%

-1.4%

Subaru

2.4%

4.1%

2.5%

-41.2%

-2.7%

Toyota

2.4%

7.9%

2.6%

-69.4%

-8.3%

Volkswagen Group

4.5%

9.2%

4.0%

-51.4%

11.0%

Industry

3.6%

9.1%

3.8%

-60.0%

-3.7%

 

Revenue

   

Manufacturer

Mar 2022 Forecast

Mar 2021 Actual

Feb 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$54,197,050,283

$60,469,364,982

$46,421,894,319

-10.4%

16.7%

Quarterly Tables

Total Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

74,304

77,718

100,891

-4.4%

-5.7%

-26.4%

-23.4%

Daimler

60,021

70,236

77,114

-14.5%

-15.7%

-22.2%

-19.1%

Ford

425,079

517,711

504,138

-17.9%

-19.0%

-15.7%

-12.3%

GM

509,297

639,406

436,776

-20.3%

-21.4%

16.6%

21.3%

Honda

261,388

347,091

287,206

-24.7%

-25.7%

-9.0%

-5.3%

Hyundai

176,920

175,352

167,747

0.9%

-0.5%

5.5%

9.7%

Kia

154,279

159,550

145,891

-3.3%

-4.6%

5.7%

10.0%

Nissan

196,724

285,553

195,433

-31.1%

-32.0%

0.7%

4.7%

Stellantis

416,733

471,931

410,857

-11.7%

-12.9%

1.4%

5.5%

Subaru

136,629

160,426

121,008

-14.8%

-16.0%

12.9%

17.4%

Tesla

127,432

69,300

108,370

83.9%

81.4%

17.6%

22.3%

Toyota

499,240

608,670

474,656

-18.0%

-19.1%

5.2%

9.4%

Volkswagen Group

113,249

161,510

133,934

-29.9%

-30.8%

-15.4%

-12.1%

Industry

3,306,944

3,910,569

3,298,307

-15.4%

-16.6%

0.3%

4.3%

 

Retail Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

QoQ % Change

QoQ % Change 
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

72,574

72,722

96,537

-0.2%

-1.5%

-24.8%

-21.8%

Daimler

56,940

67,742

72,398

-15.9%

-17.1%

-21.4%

-18.2%

Ford

319,031

398,553

403,030

-20.0%

-21.0%

-20.8%

-17.7%

GM

390,236

537,787

381,117

-27.4%

-28.4%

2.4%

6.5%

Honda

258,781

342,231

285,047

-24.4%

-25.4%

-9.2%

-5.6%

Hyundai

176,652

160,868

164,726

9.8%

8.3%

7.2%

11.5%

Kia

144,196

135,437

138,541

6.5%

5.0%

4.1%

8.2%

Nissan

172,419

198,754

167,164

-13.2%

-14.4%

3.1%

7.3%

Stellantis

320,372

385,913

345,269

-17.0%

-18.1%

-7.2%

-3.5%

Subaru

133,030

152,878

117,668

-13.0%

-14.1%

13.1%

17.6%

Tesla

126,427

68,866

104,893

83.6%

81.1%

20.5%

25.4%

Toyota

457,351

537,958

440,175

-15.0%

-16.1%

3.9%

8.1%

Volkswagen Group

110,967

144,664

130,333

-23.3%

-24.3%

-14.9%

-11.5%

Industry

2,875,141

3,337,891

2,966,034

-13.9%

-15.0%

-3.1%

0.8%

 

Total Market Share

 

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

BMW

2.2%

2.0%

3.1%

Daimler

1.8%

1.8%

2.3%

Ford

12.9%

13.2%

15.3%

GM

15.4%

16.4%

13.2%

Honda

7.9%

8.9%

8.7%

Hyundai

5.3%

4.5%

5.1%

Kia

4.7%

4.1%

4.4%

Nissan

5.9%

7.3%

5.9%

Stellantis

12.6%

12.1%

12.5%

Subaru

4.1%

4.1%

3.7%

Tesla

3.9%

1.8%

3.3%

Toyota

15.1%

15.6%

14.4%

Volkswagen Group

3.4%

4.1%

4.1%

 

95.3%

95.8%

95.9%

 

Retail Market Share

 

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

BMW

2.5%

2.2%

3.3%

Daimler

2.0%

2.0%

2.4%

Ford

11.1%

11.9%

13.6%

GM

13.6%

16.1%

12.8%

Honda

9.0%

10.3%

9.6%

Hyundai

6.1%

4.8%

5.6%

Kia

5.0%

4.1%

4.7%

Nissan

6.0%

6.0%

5.6%

Stellantis

11.1%

11.6%

11.6%

Subaru

4.6%

4.6%

4.0%

Tesla

4.4%

2.1%

3.5%

Toyota

15.9%

16.1%

14.8%

Volkswagen Group

3.9%

4.3%

4.4%

 

95.3%

96.0%

96.0%

 

ATP

     

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

YoY % Change

 

QoQ % Change

BMW

$63,812

$59,439

$60,025

7.4%

 

6.3%

Daimler

$73,238

$62,877

$66,338

16.5%

 

10.4%

Ford

$48,236

$44,997

$47,358

7.2%

 

1.9%

GM

$50,717

$42,982

$51,728

18.0%

 

-2.0%

Honda

$36,451

$31,144

$33,309

17.0%

 

9.4%

Hyundai

$36,173

$30,726

$34,533

17.7%

 

4.7%

Kia

$33,845

$29,355

$30,886

15.3%

 

9.6%

Nissan

$33,223

$28,886

$33,030

15.0%

 

0.6%

Stellantis

$52,707

$43,517

$50,204

21.1%

 

5.0%

Subaru

$34,709

$30,955

$32,720

12.1%

 

6.1%

Toyota

$40,077

$35,389

$38,452

13.2%

 

4.2%

Volkswagen Group

$46,358

$42,327

$41,563

9.5%

 

11.5%

Industry

$43,841

$37,872

$42,366

15.8%

 

3.5%

 

$5,969

 

$1,475

     

 

Incentives

     

Manufacturer

Q1 2022

Q1 2021

Q4 2021

YoY % Change

 

QoQ % Change

BMW

$2,538

$5,124

$3,010

-50.5%

 

-15.7%

Daimler

$2,129

$4,060

$2,428

-47.5%

 

-12.3%

Ford

$1,869

$3,217

$2,377

-41.9%

 

-21.4%

GM

$1,965

$4,653

$1,916

-57.8%

 

2.6%

Honda

$1,172

$2,357

$1,515

-50.3%

 

-22.7%

Hyundai

$1,049

$2,379

$1,176

-55.9%

 

-10.8%

Kia

$1,373

$2,734

$1,754

-49.8%

 

-21.8%

Nissan

$1,782

$3,598

$2,010

-50.5%

 

-11.3%

Stellantis

$2,548

$4,630

$2,377

-45.0%

 

7.2%

Subaru

$892

$1,302

$1,032

-31.5%

 

-13.6%

Toyota

$1,060

$2,644

$1,258

-59.9%

 

-15.8%

Volkswagen Group

$1,964

$3,813

$2,103

-48.5%

 

-6.6%

Industry

$1,680

$3,428

$1,894

-51.0%

 

-11.3%

 

-$1,748

 

-$214

     

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar
TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

For more information, please visit www.truecar.com, and follow us on Facebook or Twitter. 

SOURCE TrueCar.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.

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Dan Rivard
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