TrueCar expects April total new vehicle industry sales in US to drop 21% from a year ago to 1,247,917 units as retail deliveries fall 20% to 1,088,345 units; consumer demand remains high as supply chain issues contribute to lower sales

Sample article from our Automobile Industry

SANTA MONICA, California , April 28, 2022 (press release) –

TrueCar, Inc. (NASDAQ: TRUE), the easiest, most efficient and transparent online destination for buying and selling new and used vehicles, expects total new vehicle industry sales to reach 1,247,917 units in April 2022, down 21% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022, when adjusted for the same number of selling days. This month's seasonally adjusted annualized rate (SAAR) for total light vehicle industry sales is an estimated 14.8 million, down 19% from April 2021. Excluding fleet sales, TrueCar expects U.S. retail deliveries of new cars and light trucks to be 1,088,345 units, down 20% from a year ago and down 4% from March 2022.

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"Despite higher fuel prices and the Fed increasing interest rates, this month we are seeing car sales maintain a similar pace as March," said Nick Woolard, Lead Industry Analyst at TrueCar. "Consumers continue to signal strong demand for vehicles with supply still being the contributing factor to lower sales year-over-year. Individual vehicles such as the Toyota Prius are showing signs of shifting demand for some consumers. In the case of the Prius we are seeing demand up 10% compared to last year in the first three weeks of April."

"Incentives continue their downward trend in April, again notching their lowest levels since at least 2005. We expect Hyundai to have the lowest incentive levels in April of the major brands at just under $600 per unit on average. As might be expected, the three brands with the lowest incentives, Hyundai, Kia and Toyota are also the three brands that show the highest levels of scarcity on TrueCar," said Valeri Tompkins, Senior Vice President of OEM Solutions at TrueCar.

Additional Industry Insights (from https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link" target="_blank" >https://c212.net/c/link/?t=0&l=en&o=3517522-1&h=947652062&u=https%3A%2F%2Fir.true.com%2Fpress-releases&a=TrueCar" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">TrueCar):

  • Total sales for April 2022 are expected to be down 21% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Fleet sales for April 2022 are expected to be down 24% from a year ago and up 19% from March 2022 when adjusted for the same number of selling days.
  • Incentive spend is down 55% from last year.
  • Average transaction price is projected to be up 15% from a year ago and down 1% from March 2022.
  • Total SAAR is expected to be down 19% from a year ago at 14.8 million units.
  • Used vehicle sales for April 2022 are expected to reach 3.4 million, down 15% from a year ago and down 5% from March 2022.
  • The average interest rate on new vehicles is 4.8% compared to March 2022 at 4.6% and the average interest rate on used vehicles is 8%.
  • The average loan term on a new vehicle for April 2022 is 70 months and the average loan term on a used vehicle is about 71 months.

Total Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

23,364

32,161

30,561

-27.4%

-30.0%

-23.5%

-23.5%

Daimler

27,943

24,754

28,764

12.9%

8.7%

-2.9%

-2.9%

Ford

183,341

197,063

158,500

-7.0%

-10.4%

15.7%

15.7%

GM

203,149

238,819

204,829

-14.9%

-18.1%

-0.8%

-0.8%

Honda

104,181

156,482

108,075

-33.4%

-35.9%

-3.6%

-3.6%

Hyundai

60,795

80,817

63,983

-24.8%

-27.6%

-5.0%

-5.0%

Kia

65,561

70,177

59,524

-6.6%

-10.0%

10.1%

10.1%

Nissan

77,180

99,132

79,665

-22.1%

-25.0%

-3.1%

-3.1%

Stellantis

145,226

166,012

143,376

-12.5%

-15.8%

1.3%

1.3%

Subaru

39,580

61,389

43,322

-35.5%

-37.9%

-8.6%

-8.6%

Tesla

45,898

16,600

47,953

176.5%

166.3%

-4.3%

-4.3%

Toyota

175,525

238,089

195,271

-26.3%

-29.0%

-10.1%

-10.1%

Volkswagen Group

35,466

71,336

39,262

-50.3%

-52.1%

-9.7%

-9.7%

Industry

1,247,917

1,512,158

1,264,002

-17.5%

-20.5%

-1.3%

-1.3%

 

Retail Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

22,799

30,842

30,031

-26.1%

-28.8%

-24.1%

-24.1%

Daimler

26,897

24,003

28,176

12.1%

7.9%

-4.5%

-4.5%

Ford

136,299

153,678

128,849

-11.3%

-14.6%

5.8%

5.8%

GM

165,025

210,003

177,840

-21.4%

-24.3%

-7.2%

-7.2%

Honda

103,153

153,287

107,623

-32.7%

-35.2%

-4.2%

-4.2%

Hyundai

60,690

70,734

63,307

-14.2%

-17.4%

-4.1%

-4.1%

Kia

61,469

58,173

57,310

5.7%

1.8%

7.3%

7.3%

Nissan

67,876

66,192

65,764

2.5%

-1.3%

3.2%

3.2%

Stellantis

115,206

143,540

119,112

-19.7%

-22.7%

-3.3%

-3.3%

Subaru

38,326

59,707

41,707

-35.8%

-38.2%

-8.1%

-8.1%

Tesla

45,873

16,600

47,937

176.3%

166.1%

-4.3%

-4.3%

Toyota

156,629

209,321

172,361

-25.2%

-27.9%

-9.1%

-9.1%

Volkswagen Group

34,677

63,278

38,709

-45.2%

-47.2%

-10.4%

-10.4%

Industry

1,088,345

1,309,713

1,130,112

-16.9%

-20.0%

-3.7%

-3.7%

 

Fleet Unit Sales

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

YoY % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

MoM % Change

MoM % Change
(Daily Selling Rate)

BMW

565

1,319

530

-57.2%

-58.8%

6.6%

6.6%

Daimler

1,046

751

588

39.3%

34.2%

77.8%

77.8%

Ford

47,042

43,385

29,651

8.4%

4.4%

58.7%

58.7%

GM

38,124

28,816

26,989

32.3%

27.4%

41.3%

41.3%

Honda

1,028

3,195

452

-67.8%

-69.0%

127.6%

127.6%

Hyundai

105

10,083

676

-99.0%

-99.0%

-84.5%

-84.5%

Kia

4,092

12,004

2,214

-65.9%

-67.2%

84.8%

84.8%

Nissan

9,304

32,940

13,901

-71.8%

-72.8%

-33.1%

-33.1%

Stellantis

30,020

22,472

24,264

33.6%

28.6%

23.7%

23.7%

Subaru

1,254

1,682

1,615

-25.5%

-28.2%

-22.4%

-22.4%

Tesla

25

-

16

   

52.9%

52.9%

Toyota

18,896

28,768

22,910

-34.3%

-36.7%

-17.5%

-17.5%

Volkswagen Group

789

8,058

553

-90.2%

-90.6%

42.5%

42.5%

Industry

159,572

202,445

133,890

-21.2%

-24.1%

19.2%

19.2%

 

Fleet Penetration

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YoY % Change

MoM % Change

BMW

2.4%

4.1%

1.7%

-41.0%

39.4%

Daimler

3.7%

3.0%

2.0%

23.4%

83.0%

Ford

25.7%

22.0%

18.7%

16.5%

37.2%

GM

18.8%

12.1%

13.2%

55.5%

42.4%

Honda

1.0%

2.0%

0.4%

-51.7%

136.1%

Hyundai

0.2%

12.5%

1.1%

-98.6%

-83.6%

Kia

6.2%

17.1%

3.7%

-63.5%

67.8%

Nissan

12.1%

33.2%

17.4%

-63.7%

-30.9%

Stellantis

20.7%

13.5%

16.9%

52.7%

22.1%

Subaru

3.2%

2.7%

3.7%

15.6%

-15.0%

Tesla

0.1%

0.0%

0.0%

 

59.8%

Toyota

10.8%

12.1%

11.7%

-10.9%

-8.2%

Volkswagen Group

2.2%

11.3%

1.4%

-80.3%

57.8%

Industry

12.8%

13.4%

10.6%

-4.5%

20.7%

 

Total Market Share

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

BMW

1.9%

2.1%

2.4%

Daimler

2.2%

1.6%

2.3%

Ford

14.7%

13.0%

12.5%

GM

16.3%

15.8%

16.2%

Honda

8.3%

10.3%

8.6%

Hyundai

4.9%

5.3%

5.1%

Kia

5.3%

4.6%

4.7%

Nissan

6.2%

6.6%

6.3%

Stellantis

11.6%

11.0%

11.3%

Subaru

3.2%

4.1%

3.4%

Tesla

3.7%

1.1%

3.8%

Toyota

14.1%

15.7%

15.4%

Volkswagen Group

2.8%

4.7%

3.1%

 

95.1%

96.1%

95.2%

 

Retail Market Share

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

BMW

2.1%

2.4%

2.7%

Daimler

2.5%

1.8%

2.5%

Ford

12.5%

11.7%

11.4%

GM

15.2%

16.0%

15.7%

Honda

9.5%

11.7%

9.5%

Hyundai

5.6%

5.4%

5.6%

Kia

5.6%

4.4%

5.1%

Nissan

6.2%

5.1%

5.8%

Stellantis

10.6%

11.0%

10.5%

Subaru

3.5%

4.6%

3.7%

Tesla

4.2%

1.3%

4.2%

Toyota

14.4%

16.0%

15.3%

Volkswagen Group

3.2%

4.8%

3.4%

 

95.1%

96.2%

95.5%

 

ATP

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$66,898

$59,581

$65,857

12.3%

1.6%

Daimler

$69,018

$62,462

$71,192

10.5%

-3.1%

Ford

$48,824

$44,413

$46,998

9.9%

3.9%

GM

$50,292

$44,930

$49,911

11.9%

0.8%

Honda

$36,888

$31,999

$37,829

15.3%

-2.5%

Hyundai

$37,137

$30,583

$36,774

21.4%

1.0%

Kia

$34,530

$29,816

$34,455

15.8%

0.2%

Nissan

$35,739

$29,966

$34,393

19.3%

3.9%

Stellantis

$54,410

$45,940

$53,435

18.4%

1.8%

Subaru

$34,775

$31,213

$34,472

11.4%

0.9%

Toyota

$40,102

$35,438

$40,609

13.2%

-1.2%

Volkswagen Group

$44,233

$40,980

$43,526

7.9%

1.6%

Industry

$43,755

$38,163

$43,171

14.7%

1.4%

 

$5,592

 

$584

   

 

Incentives

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

$1,702

$4,872

$1,823

-65.1%

-6.6%

Daimler

$1,895

$3,799

$1,760

-50.1%

7.6%

Ford

$1,523

$2,919

$1,607

-47.8%

-5.2%

GM

$2,046

$4,641

$1,927

-55.9%

6.2%

Honda

$1,133

$2,285

$1,098

-50.4%

3.2%

Hyundai

$597

$2,440

$645

-75.5%

-7.4%

Kia

$834

$2,570

$890

-67.5%

-6.2%

Nissan

$1,695

$3,781

$1,772

-55.2%

-4.4%

Stellantis

$2,336

$3,841

$2,212

-39.2%

5.6%

Subaru

$922

$1,328

$873

-30.6%

5.6%

Toyota

$855

$2,516

$905

-66.0%

-5.6%

Volkswagen Group

$1,510

$3,924

$1,528

-61.5%

-1.2%

Industry

$1,466

$3,234

$1,472

-54.7%

-0.4%

 

-$1,767

 

-$6

   

 

Incentives as % of ATP

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

BMW

2.5%

8.2%

2.8%

-68.9%

-8.1%

Daimler

2.7%

6.1%

2.5%

-54.9%

11.0%

Ford

3.1%

6.6%

3.4%

-52.5%

-8.8%

GM

4.1%

10.3%

3.9%

-60.6%

5.4%

Honda

3.1%

7.1%

2.9%

-57.0%

5.9%

Hyundai

1.6%

8.0%

1.8%

-79.9%

-8.4%

Kia

2.4%

8.6%

2.6%

-72.0%

-6.4%

Nissan

4.7%

12.6%

5.2%

-62.4%

-8.0%

Stellantis

4.3%

8.4%

4.1%

-48.6%

3.8%

Subaru

2.7%

4.3%

2.5%

-37.7%

4.7%

Toyota

2.1%

7.1%

2.2%

-70.0%

-4.4%

Volkswagen Group

3.4%

9.6%

3.5%

-64.4%

-2.7%

Industry

3.4%

8.5%

3.4%

-60.4%

-1.7%

 

Revenue

   

Manufacturer

Apr 2022 Forecast

Apr 2021 Actual

Mar 2022 Actual

YOY

MOM

Industry

$54,602,883,710

$57,708,738,181

$54,568,664,490

-5.4%

0.1%

 

(Note: This industry insight is based solely on TrueCar, Inc.'s analysis of domestic industry sales trends and conditions and is not a projection of TrueCar, Inc.'s operations.)

About TrueCar

TrueCar is a leading automotive digital marketplace that enables auto buyers to connect to our nationwide network of Certified Dealers. We are building the industry's most personalized and efficient auto buying experience as we seek to bring more of the purchasing process online. Consumers who visit our marketplace will find a suite of vehicle discovery tools, price ratings, and market context on new and used cars – all with a clear view of what's a great deal. When they are ready, TrueCar will enable them to connect with a local Certified Dealer who shares in our belief that truth, transparency, and fairness are the foundation of a great auto buying experience. As part of our marketplace, TrueCar powers auto-buying programs for over 250 leading brands, including AARP, Sam's Club, Navy Federal Credit Union and American Express. TrueCar is headquartered in Santa Monica, California, with an office in Austin, Texas.

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