November 15, 2023
(press release)
–
Preliminary Results for November 2023 Interest Rate and Price Pressures on Consumers (September 8, 2023) Next data release: Wednesday, November 22, 2023 for Final November data at 10am ET Year-ahead inflation expectations inched up to 4.4%, indicating that the large increase between September’s 3.2% reading and October’s 4.2% reading was no fluke. The current reading is the highest since April 2023 and remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations also rose, from 3.0% last month to 3.2% this month, the highest reading since 2011. Gas price expectations, both over the short and long run, rose to their highest readings this year.
Nov
Oct
Nov
M-M
Y-Y
2023
2023
2022
Change
Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment
60.4
63.8
56.7
-5.3%
+6.5%
Current Economic Conditions
65.7
70.6
58.7
-6.9%
+11.9%
Index of Consumer Expectations
56.9
59.3
55.5
-4.0%
+2.5%
Revisions to Estimates (October 27, 2023)
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, falling 5% in November. While current and expected personal finances both improved modestly this month, the long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high interest rates. Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well. Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment. In contrast, sentiment of the top tercile of stock holders improved 10%, reflecting the recent strengthening in equity markets.
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