NEW YORK
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June 14, 2022
(press release)
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This year will mark a major US retail milestone, as ecommerce will cross the $1 trillion mark for the first time, according to the latest retail forecast from Insider Intelligence. And there will be a shift in market share for many in the top 15 retailers (ranked by ecommerce sales). Insider Intelligence has revised its retail outlook downward slightly compared with its Q1 forecast, but it still has ecommerce sales reaching $1.050 trillion by the end of 2022. That’s an increase of 9.4% over last year, the first time since 2009 that US retail ecommerce sales growth will dip into single digits. That propels ecommerce’s share of total US retail sales to 15.0%—up from 14.6%, where it sat for the last two years. BY COMPANY This year, macroeconomic pressures related to the war in Ukraine, inflation, and supply chain issues will all have a heavy impact on Amazon’s gross merchandise value growth. Its ecommerce business will grow by 9.0% this year (lower than the prior forecast of 14.6%) to reach $397.43 billion. That will give it a 37.8% share of the US ecommerce market in 2022, a slight drop from the 38.0% it had last year. This is the first time we’re projecting a decline in Amazon’s US ecommerce share, on the heels of Amazon’s first ecommerce quarterly decline in seven years and conservative guidance from the company for Q2. Also factoring into Amazon’s updated market share forecast is the upward revision made by the Department of Commerce for its 2020 and 2021 forecasts, which we use as a benchmark. Also in 2022, Apple’s share of the ecommerce market will surpass that of eBay for the first time. Its online business will soar by 13.5% to reach $40.79 billion, giving it a 3.9% share of US online sales. Conversely, eBay’s ecommerce business will contract by 7.6% in 2022, reducing its sales to $36.69 billion and equating to 3.5% of US ecommerce sales. TOTAL RETAIL Insider Intelligence has increased its projections for total US retail spending in 2022. We now expect it to grow by 6.4% year over year to reach $6.988 trillion, up from the $6.796 trillion we expected in our Q1 forecast. The increase in overall retail spending is driven mainly by inflation and higher fuel prices. Methodology About Insider Intelligence Insider Intelligence aims to be the world’s leading research service focused on digital transformation. Our mission is to empower professionals with the data, insights, and analysis to make grounded decisions in a digital world. Each year, we produce nearly 300 reports, 7,000 charts, 1,500 newsletters, and 200 forecasts across the industries of Advertising, Media, and Marketing; Financial Services; Healthcare; and Retail and Ecommerce. Insider Intelligence is owned by European media giant Axel Springer S.E. and was formed in 2020 from the combination of eMarketer and Business Insider Intelligence (BII).
Forecasts and estimates from Insider Intelligence are based on an analysis of quantitative and qualitative data from research firms, government agencies, media firms, and public companies, as well as from interviews with top executives at publishers, ad buyers, and agencies. Data is weighted based on methodology and soundness. Each eMarketer forecast fits within the larger matrix of all its forecasts, with the same assumptions and general framework used to project figures in a variety of areas. Regular re-evaluation of available data means the forecasts reflect the latest business developments, technology trends, and economic changes.
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