US social media advertising revenues to reach US$15B in 2018 from US$8.4B in 2014; social-mobile device ad revenues to pass social-desktop revenues for the first time, while locally-targeted ad campaigns will become more developed for mobile advertising
May 20, 2014
– During the forecast period, native social advertising revenues will grow at a 38.6% CAGR; social mobile at a 38.3% CAGR; and locally targeted social advertising at a 31.6% CAGR.
In its latest U.S. Social Local Media Forecast (2013-2018), BIA/Kelsey projects total U.S. social media advertising revenues will grow from $5.1 billion in 2013 to $15 billion in 2018, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 24 percent. This year represents the greatest year-over-year jump in social media ad revenues, growing to $8.4 billion in 2014, largely due to increases in mobile and native advertising.
According to the forecast, U.S. social display ad revenues will grow from $3.3 billion in 2013 to $5.6 billion in 2018 (CAGR: 11.3 percent). During the same period, U.S. native social advertising, spurred primarily by Facebook’s News Feed ads and Twitter’s Promoted Tweets, will surge to $9.4 billion in 2018, up from $1.8 billion in 2013 (CAGR: 38.6 percent). In 2015, BIA/Kelsey expects native social advertising will eclipse social display for the first time.
The forecast also presents social advertising revenues by platform: desktop and mobile. Driven by Facebook and Twitter, U.S. social mobile ad revenues eclipsed $1.5 billion in 2013. U.S. social mobile ad revenues will reach $7.6 billion by 2018 (CAGR: 38.3 percent), surpassing social desktop for the first time.
“We were initially skeptical about the social-mobile market’s ability to capture optimal wallet share because of mobile’s limitations, such as smaller screen size, limited ad inventory and static creative,” said Jed Williams, VP, consulting, BIA/Kelsey. “Over the past year, however, Facebook, Twitter and other networks have generated dramatic revenue growth, primarily as a function of mobile ad acceleration and largely through natively integrated mobile ad formats. We expect this growth to continue throughout the forecast period.”
BIA/Kelsey forecasts locally targeted social advertising in the U.S. to grow at a 31.6 percent CAGR, from $1.3 billion in 2013 to $5.2 billion in 2018.
“While social networks are enhancing the geotargeting capabilities of their ad platforms, local targeting is still an emerging capability,” said Williams. “As social usage further migrates to mobile platforms, the need for locally targeted messages and offers that leverage mobile’s unique capabilities will expand. We expect social local ad spend to increase steadily through 2018, as SMBs better leverage multi- and micro-targeting to optimize campaigns, and national brands drive more traffic to individual store locations and target consumers with more personalized offers.”
BIA/Kelsey custom advisory service clients can log into the client resource center to download the full social media forecast. For details on purchasing this social forecast or the U.S. Local Media Forecast (2013-2018): Full Forecast covering the entire local media advertising marketplace, contact Steve Passwaiter, VP, business development, at firstname.lastname@example.org or (703) 818-2425.
Defining Social Media Advertising
BIA/Kelsey defines social media advertising as money spent on advertising formats across social networks. Social advertising is included in BIA/Kelsey’s display revenue forecast, which falls within the online/interactive advertising category. BIA/Kelsey specifically delineates native social advertising as branded content integrated directly within a social network’s user experience (i.e., the newsfeed or content stream). These integrated, advertorial qualities differentiate native ads from traditional display. BIA/Kelsey’s definition of social advertising does not include revenues derived from virtual currency, social marketing/measurement platforms and services or social commerce.
BIA/Kelsey advises companies in the local media space through consulting and valuation services, research, Continuous Advisory Services and conferences. Since 1983 BIA/Kelsey has been a resource to the media, mobile advertising, telecommunications, Yellow Pages and electronic directory markets, as well as to government agencies, law firms and investment companies looking to understand trends and revenue drivers. BIA/Kelsey’s annual conferences draw executives from across industries seeking expert guidance on how companies are finding innovative ways to grow. Additional information is available at www.biakelsey.com, the company’s Local Media Watch blog and on Twitter at http://twitter.com/BIAKelsey.