New estimate for Brazilian harvest of cereals, legumes and oil seeds at 189.4 million tonnes for 2014, up 0.7% from 2013 and 0.5% below previous estimate, government says

Nevin Barich

SAO PAULO , April 10, 2014 (press release) – The third estimate for the national production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds, amounts to 189.4 million metric tons, 0.7% above the 2013 figure (188.2 million metric tons) and 0.5% below the February estimate (190.3 million metric tons). The area to be harvested in 2014 of 55.6 million hectares, presents Increase of 5.3% over the 2013 figure (52.8 million hectares), and Increase of 1.0% over que of previous month (55.1 million hectares).

Rice, corn and soybeans are the three main products in this group, and, together, represent 91.4% of the output estimate and account for 85.3% of the area to be harvested. In comparison with the previous year, there were Increases in area: 1.8% for rice; 7.5% for soybeans and decrease of 0.9% for corn. Concerning production, rice recorded Increase of 7.7% and soybeans, of 6.2%. Corn fell by 8.5% in comparison with the 2013 result. The complete publication can be accessed at www.ibge.gov.br / Inglês / statistics / indicators / agropecuaria / LASP .

Among the Major Regions, the volume of production of cereals, legumes and oilseeds showed the following distribution: Central West, 77.4 million tons; South, 72.2 million tons; Southeast, 16.9 million tons; Northeast, 18.0 million metric tons and North, 5.0 million tons. Compared to last season, it was observed an increase of 50.2% in the Northeast. The Midwest, South, Southeast showed, respectively, a decrease of 1.3%, 1.1% and 14.7% compared to the previous year's production. The North remained stable (0.0%). This assessment for 2014, Mato Grosso led to greater national grain producer, with a share of 23.9%, followed by Paraná (18.6%) and Rio Grande do Sul (16.1%), which together accounted for 58 , 6% of the national total planned:

March estimate in relation to the production in 2013

Among the 26 main products, 16 had positive percentage change in the production estimate for the previous year: herbaceous cotton (23.5%), rice in husk (7.7%), potatoes 1st harvest (7, 7%), potatoes 2 nd harvest (0.5%), potatoes 3 rd harvest (0.8%), coffee bean - Coffea (13.0%), cane sugar (0.0% ), onions (12.9%), beans in grain 1st harvest (56.6%), beans in grain 2 nd harvest (1.8%), orange (0.2%), castor beans (372.3% ), cassava (6.9%), soybeans (6.2%), sorghum in grain (2.0%) and wheat (17.3%). With negative variation were 10 products: peanuts 1st harvest (17.6%), peanuts in shell 2 nd harvest (10.7%), oats in grain (1.3%), cacao beans (2.1%) coffee beans - Arabica (8.1%), barley grain (8.4%), beans in grain 3rd harvest (2.8%), corn in grain 1st harvest (7.8%), corn grain 2 nd harvest (9.1%) and triticale in grain (14.2%).

Highlights in March estimate compared to February

HERBACEOUS COTTON (seed) - The production of 4.2 million tons is 10.4% higher than the estimate made ​​in February, 3.8 million tonnes, mainly due to increased acreage of 8.5 %, percentage allocated as the outlook for prices for the product to be harvested in 2014.'s average national income is expected to grow 1.8%. Mato Grosso is the main producing state, accounting for 55.6% of national production, with increases of 3.2% in the area planted and harvested and 2.5% is expected in production, which is expected to total 2.3 million tonnes .
Rice (paddy) - In March, the national rice production for 2014 is estimated at 12,660,899 tons, 1.3% higher than the estimate made ​​in February. The total area planted with this crop and area to be harvested were evaluated for an additional 0.8%. The southern region is the largest producer in the country, with almost absolute predominance of rice. The Rio Grande do Sul concentrates 68.1% of national production, and in March makes small corrections in their numbers for the harvest 2014 over the previous month, as follows: -0.2% and the total area to be harvested, 1.8% of the expected production and 2.0% in the expected yield.

TOTAL COFFEE (beans) - Combined the Arabica and Coffea species, the country is expected to produce in 2014, 2,818,214 tons (46.9 million 60-kg bags of coffee beans benefit). The harvest in 2014 points to an atypical year, according to the historical series published by IBGE since the biennial feature Arabica coffee had been observed since 1992 without interruptions. Confirmed the current negative estimates for arabica will be two consecutive years of "low season" (2013 and 2014).

COFFEE ARABIC (grain) - According to the March estimate, Brazil is expected to produce 2,086,097 tonnes of Arabica coffee, which equates to 34.7 million 60-kg bags. In 2013, it was a year low, the country produced 2,270,916 tons (37.8 million bags). The percentage of decrease in production compared to the February estimate of 5.1%. There is a reduction in the expected deviation from the estimate of March compared to February -5.4% from 1436 kg / ha, reported in February to 1358 kg / ha yield in the current survey. There are important records of falling average income, as high temperatures and drought at the beginning of 2014 were negative and very prolonged occurrences. It was expected to drop in Brazilian production in 2014, due to the decrease of the culture occupied the country, due to the large international price crisis that has worsened since November 2012 and persisted until the end of 2013 area. With Fall prices to levels below R $ 300.00 / bag, was discouraging the maintenance of coffee plantations, which led farmers to undertake drastic pruning and even the eradication of less productive plots. Groups Coordination of Agricultural Statistics (state GCEAs), responsible for monthly estimates are formed by institutions related to the sector, such as: IBGE, FAEMG, EPAMIG, SEAP, CEASAMINAS, INCAPER, CONAB DERAL, MDA, BB, BCB and EMATER, among others. Minas Gerais, the 1st producer of Arabica coffee, pointing down 2.9% on the estimated production in March compared to February, totaling 1,494,171 tons (24.9 million 60-kg bags). The area to be harvested is estimated at 1,018,924 ha.

COFFEE canephora (grain) - For canephora coffee, the estimate made ​​in March 2014 is that 732,117 tons (12.2 million bags), 1.0% higher than the February estimate will be produced this year. The total area occupied by this species is 531 190 hectares (0.5%). The production of the Holy Spirit, the main producer of canephora the country is estimated at 570 971 tonnes (9.5 million bags). Non-irrigated areas of the state have suffered from drought and high temperatures.

BEAN (grain) TOTAL - The production estimate for the total beans in March 2014 indicates a decrease of 4.5% in manufacturing and 5.8% in planted compared to February area. In this survey, the largest producers are the Paraná with 25.7% share, Minas Gerais and Goiás with 16.5% with 8.5% of the national production. The Paraná reduced its planted area by 0.7% and the estimated average yield of 1.5%, thus the estimated production is 2.2% lower than in February, staying at 917 412 tonnes.

BEAN (grain) 1st crop - The 1st national bean harvest is estimated at 1,708,949 tonnes, representing a decrease of 3.3% compared to February. This result reflects the estimated decrease in the average yield 4.0%, since the area planted rose 1.4%. In Bahia, the decrease in expected average yield was 42.8%, from 691 kg / ha, previously estimated to 395 kg / ha, in the March survey. This estimate of March, the largest producers of this bean crop are Paraná (24.7%), Ceará (12.7%) and Ontario (11.7%).

BEAN (grain) 2nd crop - Despite the estimate for the average income has risen 11.4%, the expected production of 1,348,986 tons is 7.7% lower than in February, whereas there was a decrease of 17.2 % in the estimate of the area planted. In Paraná, major national producer also for the 2nd harvest, field investigations indicate an area planted with bean crop of 263 718 ha and an expected production of 490 386 tonnes of product, lower estimates than those recorded in the previous month at 1.1 % and 4.1%, respectively. For the average yield (1,860 kg / ha) the decrease is 3.0%.

Cassava - The estimate cassava production for 2014 was 22,654,996 tons, down 3.1% from the previous month, due to a 4.5% decline in the area to be harvested, despite growth of 1.5 % of the average income. The Northeast region, with two years of drought in this information, lowered its production estimate by 13.9% compared to information from the previous month and reflecting the area to be harvested which decreased 13.2%. The largest falls in the previous month were informed by Bahia (-44.6%), Ceará (-3.4%) and Alagoas (-16.4%), while the largest increases were reported by Rio Grande do Norte ( 288.6%) and Pernambuco (5.5%). The northern region, the largest producer in the country, expects a 1.9% increase in production this month compared to the previous, with highlights growth in Amazonas (17.5%). The Para largest domestic producer that participates with 20.7% of national production, kept the estimates of the previous month. The price per ton of cassava, after reaching R $ 500.00, has been falling in the last three months, reflecting the increased offer.

CORN (grain) 1st crop - In March the national estimate for corn 1st harvest is 31.5 million tons, 4.5% are produced less than the number reported in February. All variables investigated are showing declines: Total acreage (-1.6%), the area harvested or to be harvested (-2.3%) and middle income (-2.2%). Large losses recorded in the Southeast are directly related to hot weather and lack of rain in the first two months of this year, especially in Minas Gerais. This state expects to reap 5,774,064 tonnes of maize this first crop, 3.3% less than the estimate from the previous month. The area to be harvested has decreased by 1.0% and the average yield decrease of 2.4%.

CORN (grain) 2nd crop - For the third consecutive 2nd maize crop year is expected to exceed the 1st harvest. The estimate for the domestic production of 2 nd harvest corn in 2014 is 42.2 million tonnes, 0.5% higher than the February estimate. The total area planted or to be planted with this crop is 8,650,834 ha, 2.7% higher than last month. The yield, however, should show a decline of 1.9%. Mato Grosso, the first producer of 2 nd harvest corn, indicates production of 15.8 million tonnes, 0.7% lower than the February estimate. This harvest technology investments are much smaller than in harvested in 2013, particularly with respect to seed harvest. The state expected decrease in productivity of 4.0%. The corn crop 2nd crop in Parana were implanted with high-tech, but estimates suggest decreases compared to February, in expected production (-0.3%) and income (-0.4%).

SOJA (grain) - The March estimate for soybean production in 2014 was 86,769,230 tons, 1.9% lower compared to the previous estimate, reflecting some of the negative effects of drought and high temperatures experienced in this early 2014 . the average yield decreased 2.9% to 2,897 kg / ha. The Midwest, which accounts for 47.9% of national production, had an average yield of 2,985 kg / ha, number 3.6% lower than the estimate from the previous month. In Mato Grosso, the first national producer, there are reports of constant rains in the northern state average during harvest. The production falls 0.8% yield and 2.2% compared to February. Thus, the state is expected to produce 26.3 million tons. In Paraná, 2nd largest producer, current estimates of area to be planted and expected production were both fixed at 0.4%, the yield of 2,932 kg / ha being maintained.

The Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LASP) is a monthly survey of forecasting and monitoring of harvests of main agricultural products, whose information is obtained through the Municipal Commissions (COMEA) and / or Regional Commissions (COREA) consolidated at the state level by the Coordinating Group of Agricultural Statistics (GCEA) and later evaluated at national level by the Special Commission of Planning, Control and Evaluation of Agricultural Statistics (CEPAGRO) consisting of representatives from IBGE and Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA). Due to the needs of users of crop data, the surveys for cereals (rice, corn, oats, rye, barley, sorghum, triticale and wheat), legumes (beans and peanuts) and oilseeds (cotton seed, castor, soybean and sunflower) were performed in close collaboration with the National Supply Company (Conab), an agency of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Supply (MAPA), continuing a process of harmonization of official harvest estimates, initiated in March 2007, for the main Brazilian crops.

Industry Intelligence Editor's Note: This press release omits select charts and/or marketing language for editorial clarity. Click here to view the full report.

* All content is copyrighted by Industry Intelligence, or the original respective author or source. You may not recirculate, redistrubte or publish the analysis and presentation included in the service without Industry Intelligence's prior written consent. Please review our terms of use.