US borrowers who refinanced their mortgages in 2013 will save on net about US$21B in interest payments over next 12 months; 39% of people who refinanced in Q4 shortened their loan term, up 2% from previous quarter: Freddie Mac

Allison Oesterle

MCLEAN, Virginia , February 4, 2014 (press release) – Freddie Mac (OTCQB: FMCC) today released the results of its fourth quarter 2013 quarterly refinance analysis, showing that borrowers are continuing to take advantage of near record low mortgage rates to lower their monthly payments, shorten their loan terms and overwhelmingly choosing the safety of long-term fixed-rate mortgages as they closed out 2013. Borrowers who refinanced in 2013 will save on net approximately $21 billion in interest over the next 12 months. This release of the report also contains annual statistics on refinances for the 10 largest metropolitan areas and four Census regions of the U.S.

News Facts

Of borrowers who refinanced during the fourth quarter of 2013, 39 percent shortened their loan term, up 2 percent from the previous quarter and the highest since 1992. Further, 42 percent of those who refinanced outside of HARP took out a shorter-term loan, while 35 percent of HARP borrowers shortened their term. Borrowers who kept the same term as the loan that they had paid off represented 56 percent and only 5 percent chose to lengthen their loan term.

The net dollars of home equity converted to cash as part of a refinance remained low compared to historical volumes. In the fourth quarter, an estimated $6.5 billion in net home equity was cashed out during a refinance of conventional prime-credit home mortgages. The peak in cash-out refinance volume was $84 billion during the second quarter of 2006. Adjusted for inflation, annual cash-out volumes during 2010 through 2013 have been the smallest since 1997.

The average interest rate reduction in the fourth quarter was about 1.5 percentage points -- a savings of about 25 percent. On a $200,000 loan, that translates into saving about $3,000 in interest during the next 12 months. Homeowners who refinanced through HARP during the fourth quarter of 2013 benefited from an average rate reduction of 1.7 percentage points and will save an average of $3,300 in interest during the first 12 months, or about $275 every month.

About 83 percent of those who refinanced their first-lien home mortgage maintained about the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance by paying in additional money at the closing table. That's just shy of the 88 percent peak during the second quarter of 2012.

More than 95 percent of refinancing borrowers chose a fixed-rate loan. Fixed-rate loans were preferred regardless of what the original loan product had been. For example, 94 percent of borrowers who had a hybrid ARM refinanced into a fixed-rate loan during the fourth quarter. In contrast, only 3 percent of borrowers who had a fixed-rate loan chose an ARM.

With mortgage rates remaining below 5 percent for most of the past four years, relatively few homeowners with loans taken in this period would have much incentive to refinance. Consequently, the median age the original loan was outstanding before refinance increased to 7.0 years during the fourth quarter, the most since the analysis began in 1985.

In metro areas where house price declines were more severe, the share of "cash-out" borrowers was smaller. Median house values on refinance loans have declined in nine of the ten areas, with the sharpest declines in Miami and Detroit. Of the ten, San Francisco was the metro area where median house prices increased. The share of borrowers who maintained the same loan amount or lowered their principal balance was above 80 percent in all ten large metropolitan areas.

Quotes
Attributed to Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist:

"Our latest refinance report shows the refinance boom continued to wind down as the pool of potential borrowers declined and as mortgage rates increased during the second half of 2013. We are projecting the refinance share will be just 38 percent of all originations in 2014 as refinance falls off further and the emerging purchase market consumes a bigger piece of the pie."

About the Quarterly Refinance Report
These estimates come from a sample of properties on which Freddie Mac has funded two successive conventional, first-mortgage loans, and the latest loan is for refinance rather than for purchase. The analysis does not track the use of funds made available from these refinances. The analysis also does not track loans paid off in entirety, with no new loan placed. Some loan products, such as 1-year ARMs and balloons, are based on a small number of transactions. During the fourth quarter of 2014, the refinance share of applications averaged 56 percent in Freddie Mac's monthly refinance survey, and the ARM share of applications was 10 percent in Freddie Mac's monthly ARM survey, which includes purchase-money as well as refinance applications.

With the report for the first quarter of 2013, the calculation of the principal balance at payoff of the previous loan has been modified. Previously, the payoff balance was calculated as the amount due based on the loan's amortization schedule, and "cash-in" was defined as a new loan amount that was less than the scheduled amortization amount. Data for 1994 to current have been recalculated using the actual payoff amount of the old loan, with an allowance for rounding down the principal at refinance; thus, from 1994 to present, "cash-in" is defined as a new loan amount that is at least $1,000 less than the payoff principal balance of the old loan. Data are presented under both methods for 1994 for comparison purposes.

Fourth Quarter & Full Year 2013 Refinance Statistics

Freddie Mac was established by Congress in 1970 to provide liquidity, stability and affordability to the nation's residential mortgage markets. Freddie Mac supports communities across the nation by providing mortgage capital to lenders. Today Freddie Mac is making home possible for one in four home borrowers and is one of the largest sources of financing for multifamily housing. For more information please visit www.FreddieMac.com and Twitter: @FreddieMac.

The financial and other information contained in the documents that may be accessed on this page speaks only as of the date of those documents. The information could be out of date and no longer accurate. Freddie Mac does not undertake an obligation, and disclaims any duty, to update any of the information in those documents. Freddie Mac's future performance, including financial performance, is subject to various risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from expectations. The factors that could affect the company's future results are discussed more fully in our reports filed with the SEC.

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