US home prices in Q3 rise estimated 11.2% year-over-year, but prices still 23% below peak reached in Q1 2006; yearly price appreciation expected to slow to 4.2% through Q3 2014, finds CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Indexes
Allison Oesterle
IRVINE, California
,
January 30, 2014
(press release)
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- Home prices increased by 11.2 percent year over year in the third quarter of 2013. Selected U.S. markets (other metro areas available upon request): Metro Area Population Change in Home Prices Change in Home Prices Forecast Change in Home Prices (Q3 2013 to Q3 2014) United States 313,914,040 11.2% 11.3% 4.2% Las Vegas, Nev. 2,000,759 29.6% 24.6% 5.4% Sacramento, Calif. 2,196,482 27.1% 23.9% 3.8% Riverside, Calif. 4,350,096 25.7% 25.0% 5.0% Oakland, Calif. 2,634,317 25.6% 27.4% 9.3% Los Angeles, Calif. 9,962,789 22.0% 22.5% 6.8% San Jose, Calif. 1,894,388 20.8% 29.9% 4.6% San Francisco, Calif. 1,821,243 20.2% 25.2% 4.8% Detroit, Mich. 1,792,365 19.8% 48.8% 4.4% Phoenix, Ariz. 4,329,534 18.7% 34.2% 4.3% Atlanta, Ga. 5,439,950 18.5% 7.1% 5.3% Orlando, Fla. 2,223,674 17.2% 21.0% 2.9% Warren, Mich. 2,499,695 15.7% 29.4% 4.0% Fort Lauderdale, Fla. 1,815,137 15.6% 18.3% 4.4% West Palm Beach, Fla. 1,356,545 14.8% 14.8% 3.6% Tampa, Fla. 2,842,878 14.6% 13.3% 8.0% Miami, Fla. 2,591,035 12.7% 24.2% 3.9% Jacksonville, Fla. 1,377,850 12.3% 7.5% 3.2% Houston, Texas 6,204,161 11.4% 19.8% 3.9% Salt Lake City, Utah 1,161,715 11.3% 15.4% 6.3% Austin, Texas 1,834,303 10.1% 20.3% 3.7% Tucson, Ariz. 992,394 9.6% 4.0% 8.8% Chicago, Ill. 7,945,578 9.5% 3.1% 5.4% Indianapolis, Ind. 1,798,634 9.0% 14.6% 6.6% Columbus, Ohio 1,878,714 8.1% 8.3% 4.3% San Antonio, Texas 2,234,003 7.6% 11.6% 3.7% Richmond, Va. 1,282,305 7.2% 9.1% 8.5% St. Louis, Mo. 2,845,721 6.8% 2.9% 6.0% Nashville, Tenn. 1,644,703 6.3% 6.7% 2.0% Milwaukee, Wis. 1,566,981 6.2% 2.1% 6.1% Fort Worth, Texas 2,213,738 5.9% 11.1% 8.9% Raleigh-Cary, N.C. 1,188,564 5.3% 8.4% 6.1% Camden, N.J. 1,254,461 5.0% -3.8% 7.3% Baltimore, Md. 2,753,149 4.8% 2.4% 8.0% Kansas City, Mo. 2,064,630 4.8% 9.1% 6.7% Edison, N.J. 2,360,602 4.2% -0.8% 4.3% Nassau-Suffolk, N.Y. 2,848,506 3.3% -1.4% 4.8% Virginia Beach, Va. 1,694,900 3.3% -3.2% 4.4% Philadelphia, Pa. 4,050,793 3.1% -0.3% 6.4% Hartford, Conn. 1,214,400 2.9% -2.5% 8.3% New Orleans, La. 1,205,374 2.7% 6.4% 8.7% ® 2014 CoreLogic Case-Shiller
- Nationally, prices during the third quarter of 2013 were 17 percent above the fourth-quarter trough of 2011, but still 23 percent below the first-quarter peak of 2006.
- Price appreciation is projected to slow to 4.2 percent across all markets by the fall of 2014.
CoreLogic® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading residential property information, analytics and services provider, today released an analysis of home price trends during the third quarter of 2013 in more than 380 U.S. markets based on the CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes™.*
(Logo: http://photos.prnewswire.com/prnh/20100609/CLLOGO)
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes estimate that home prices increased by 11.2 percent in the third quarter of 2013 compared to a year ago. Home prices nationwide were 17 percent above the trough reached in the fourth quarter of 2011, but remained 23 percent below the peak reached in the first quarter of 2006. The analysis projects that price appreciation is expected to slow to 4.2 percent nationally through the third quarter of 2014 across all U.S. markets, close to its long-term annual average of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.
"Investor demand and sales of foreclosed properties are dropping quickly," said Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller™. "This is especially true in states that were caught up early in the bubble and have non-judicial foreclosure proceedings, such as California and Arizona. In these states, inventories of bank-owned properties are close to being cleared. Non-investor demand, although increasing, will not replace demand from investors."
The large metro areas, defined as those with populations greater than 950,000, that experienced the most rapid appreciation rates on a year-over-year basis compared to third quarter 2012 were Las Vegas (+30 percent), Sacramento (+27 percent) and Riverside, Calif. (+26 percent). The large metro areas with the slowest appreciation rates were Philadelphia (+3 percent), Hartford, Conn (+3 percent) and New Orleans (+3 percent).
"Double-digit price gains are unlikely to persist, but since housing is far more affordable now than it was in 2006, there is less concern that a new housing bubble will occur. As of the third quarter of 2013, the ratio of median mortgage payment to median family income was at a 40-year low and 35 percent lower than it was at the peak of the bubble, even after accounting for recent increases in prices and mortgage interest rates," Dr. Stiff said.
Metro areas with large projected year-over-year gains through the third quarter of 2014 are Oakland, Calif. (+9 percent), New Orleans (+9 percent) and Fort Worth, Texas (+9 percent). The large metro areas with smaller projected gains are Nashville, Tenn. (+2), Orlando, Fla. (+3 percent) and Jacksonville, Fla. (+3 percent).
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes are owned and generated by CoreLogic. The historical home price trend information in this report is calculated from the proprietary CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes, supplemented with data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA). One-year forecasts in this release are for the 12 months ending on Sept. 30, 2014. CoreLogic Case-Shiller home price forecasts are produced by CoreLogic and Moody's Analytics®.
*This quarterly report differs from the S&P/Dow Jones Case-Shiller monthly report. Although both reflect findings from the same dataset, this analysis includes local-level data for a greater number of markets over a different time frame. Additionally, this report differs from the monthly CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI®) report, which provides the most current indication of trends in home prices on a monthly basis.
(2012)
(Q3 2012 to Q3 2013)
(Q3 2010 to Q3 2013)
Methodology
The CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes use the repeat sales method for index calculation, analyzing data on single-family properties that have two or more recorded sales transactions. Changes in housing types and sizes, or changes in the physical characteristics, of houses are specifically excluded from the calculations to avoid incorrectly affecting the index value. The principal variable used for index calculation is the price change between two arms-length sales of the same single-family home. Sales pairs with approved data are aggregated with all other sales pairs found in a particular Census division, state, metro area, county, or ZIP code market to independently calculate each Case-Shiller index. The national index is a composite of the Case-Shiller Census division indexes. Different weights are assigned to different changes in home prices, based on their statistical distribution in that geographic region. The weighting schemes include price anomalies, high turnover frequency, time interval adjustments and initial home value. Case-Shiller Indexes include data covering thousands of ZIP codes, counties, metro areas and state markets.
About CoreLogic
CoreLogic (NYSE: CLGX) is a leading property information, analytics and services provider in the United States and Australia. The Company's combined data from public, contributory, and proprietary sources includes over 3.3 billion records spanning more than 40 years, providing detailed coverage of property, mortgages and other encumbrances, consumer credit, tenancy, location, hazard risk and related performance information. The markets CoreLogic serves include real estate and mortgage finance, insurance, capital markets, transportation and government. CoreLogic delivers value to clients through unique data, analytics, workflow technology, advisory and managed services. Clients rely on CoreLogic to help identify and manage growth opportunities, improve performance and mitigate risk. Headquartered in Irvine, Calif., CoreLogic operates in seven countries. For more information, please visit www.corelogic.com.
CORELOGIC, the CoreLogic logo, CoreLogic Case-Shiller, CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indexes and CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) are trademarks of CoreLogic, Inc. and/or its subsidiaries. All other trademarks are the property of their respective holders.
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