Coffee leaf rust outbreak in Central America expected to cut coffee production by 9.7%, or around 1.2 million 60-kg bags, for 2013-2014 crop year
December 6, 2013
– Coffee leaf rust outbreak in Central America is expected to cut coffee production by 9 7% or around 1.2 mn 60 kg bags for the crop year 2013 14 (year on year basis). This sharp reduction in the coffee production is expected to bring down the total production to 11.2 mn bags said International Coffee Organization (ICO) in its November market report.The outbreak of a leaf rust fungus known as "roya" is hindering the persisting harvest and this follows reduced production in 2012 13 when it fell by roughly 20% as a result of the air borne fungus.
Central America produces around 10% of the global coffee output and cultivates a good quality arabica bean. However global market is expected continue to witness higher coffee production despite lower Central American production. This is due to large production in Brazil Vietnam Colombia and others.
Meanwhile the ongoing deterioration of the coffee prices steadied slightly in November but the monthly averages of all the ICO indicator prices remain at multi‐ year lows ICO said.
The ICO composite indicator price averaged 100.99 US cents lb 5.6% lower than October and the lowest monthly level in six and a half years. Crop year 2012 13 saw a surplus of production over consumption with good crops in most major producing countries allowing both exporters and importers to replenish stocks and thus putting downward pressure on prices.
However early indications are that consumption in calendar year 2013 is increasing and with Brazil in the off‐ year of its biennial cycle and some uncertainty over production in other regions it seems likely that these stocks will be needed to meet consumption prospects.
The total global coffee production for crop year 2012 13 is maintained at around 145.2 million bags up 9.8% on the previous year. In 2013 14 Brazil is in the off‐ year of its biennial cycle and production is therefore estimated at 47.5 million bags down 6.5% on 2012 13.
Elsewhere adverse weather conditions in Vietnam and Indonesia have also disrupted production although Colombia is expected to benefit from its ongoing recovery. Furthermore the effects of coffee leaf rust in Central America are likely to cause a drop in output of around 1.2 million bags or 9.7% of regional production according to ICAFE. Published by HT Syndication with permission from Commodity Online. For any query with respect to this article or any other content requirement, please contact Editor at firstname.lastname@example.org
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