US home values expected be up by average of 6.7% year-over-year at year-end 2013 before slowing through 2018; overall US home values could exceed May 2007 peak by Q1 2018, may surpass US$200,000 threshold by end of 2018: Zillow
November 7, 2013
– Pace of Annual Appreciation to Fall to 4.3 Percent in 2014, 3.4 Percent by 2018; Panelists Say Federal Government Should Back 35 Percent of Mortgages, According to Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey
More than 100 forecasters said they expect the U.S. home values, as measured by the Zillow® Home Value Indexi, to end 2013 up an average of 6.7 percent year-over-year, according to the latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, before slowing over the next five years. Most panelists also said they would like to see the federal government maintain a considerable role in the mortgage market.
The survey of 108 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists was sponsored by leading real estate information marketplace Zillow, Inc. and is conducted quarterly by Pulsenomics LLC.
While appreciation is expected to remain strong through the remainder of this year, the pace of home value growth is predicted to slow considerably through 2018. Panelists said they expect appreciation rates to slow to roughly 4.3 percent next year, on average, eventually falling to 3.4 percent by 2018.
Based on current expectations for home value appreciation over the next five years, panelists predicted that overall U.S. home values could exceed their May 2007 peak by the first quarter of 2018, and may cross the $200,000 threshold by the end of 2018.
"The housing market has seen a period of unsustainable, breakneck appreciation, and some cooling off is both welcome and expected," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. "Rising mortgage rates, diminished investor demand and slowly rising inventory will all contribute to the slowdown of appreciation."
The most optimistic quartileii of panelists predicted an 8.3 percent annual increase in home values this year, on average, while the most pessimistic quartileiii predicted an average increase of 5.6 percent. Expectations among the optimists fell from 9.3 percent in the last survey, but rose from 5.1 percent among the pessimists. The most optimistic panelists predicted home values would rise roughly 12.5 percent above their 2007 peaks by the end of 2018, on average, while the most pessimistic said they expected home values to remain about 6.2 percent below 2007 peaks.
Diminished, But Still 'Significant' Role For Federal Gov't in Mortgages
A number of public and private plans for overhauling the nation's mortgage finance system and reforming government-sponsored entities Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been proposed, all of which seek to reduce and redefine the government's role in the mortgage market to some degree. As these policy conversations begin, panelists were asked how involved they think the federal government should be in any re-imagined mortgage system. Among those panelists expressing an opinion, the majority (58.4 percent) said the federal government's involvement in the conforming mortgage market should be "somewhat significant," "significant" or "very significant." Only 8 percent of respondents said the federal government should have a "non-existent" role in the conforming market.
Panelists were also asked to define an appropriate level of government-backing for mortgage loans going forward. Among those panelists expressing an opinion about what maximum percentage of all new mortgages should be backed by the federal government, the median response was 35 percent, roughly the level seen in 2006 at the height of the housing bubble.
"Policy discussions centered on reforming the nation's housing finance system have only just begun, and it will be very interesting to see what comes out of these debates and how the market will react to new proposals," Humphries said. "How much mortgages will end up costing average consumers, and the continued availability of traditional mortgage products like the 30-year fixed rate mortgage, are among the critical issues currently at stake for consumers in these debates."
"Currently, the federal government backs roughly 90 percent of all new mortgage originations in the U.S. in some form," said Pulsenomics® Founder Terry Loebs. "In 2000, prior to the bubble, the government backed about 50 percent of new mortgages. These benchmarks and survey data are another reminder of the challenges that lie ahead in reforming U.S. housing institutions."
Additional details regarding this portion of the survey are available at www.pulsenomics.com.
This is the 20th edition of the Home Price Expectations Survey. It was conducted from Oct. 21, 2013 through Oct. 31, 2013 by Pulsenomics LLC on behalf of Zillow, Inc.
For full survey results and graphics, please visit Zillow Real Estate Research or www.pulsenomics.com.
Zillow, Inc. (NASDAQ: Z) operates the largest home-related marketplaces on mobile and the Web, with a complementary portfolio of brands and products that help people find vital information about homes, and connect with the best local professionals. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries. Dr. Humphries and his team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 350 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. The Zillow, Inc. portfolio includes Zillow.com®, Zillow Mobile, Zillow Mortgage Marketplace, Zillow Rentals, Zillow Digs™, Postlets®, Diverse Solutions®, Agentfolio™, Mortech®, HotPads™ and StreetEasy®. The company is headquartered in Seattle.
Zillow.com, Zillow, Postlets, Mortech, Diverse Solutions and StreetEasy are registered trademarks of Zillow, Inc. HotPads, Digs and Agentfolio are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.
Pulsenomics is a registered trademark of Pulsenomics LLC.
Pulsenomics LLC is an independent research and consulting firm that specializes in data analytics, new product and index development for institutional clients in the financial and real estate arenas. Pulsenomics also designs and manages expert surveys and consumer polls to identify trends and expectations that are relevant to effective business management and monitoring economic health.
i The Zillow Home Value Index is the median estimated home value for a given geographic area on a given day and includes the value of all single-family residences, condominiums and cooperatives, regardless of whether they sold within a given period. It is expressed in dollars, and seasonally adjusted.
ii Based on the 25 percent most optimistic panelists in terms of cumulative home price change through 2018.
iii Based on the 25 percent most pessimistic panelists in terms of cumulative home price change through 2018.
SOURCE Zillow, Inc.