CEPEA: ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for soybeans delivered at Brazilian port of Paranaguá rises 3.1% to 73.84 reais/60-kg bag on Oct. 15; index for soybeans in state of Paraná rises 3.1% to 72.83 reais/60-kg bag
October 18, 2013
– The soybean area in the 2013/14 season may be the largest ever planted in Brazil, as expected by the sector. Considering the average yield over the last three years and disregarding atypical years and technological gains, the Brazilian production may near 90 million tons, a record. Meanwhile, in early October, domestic soybean prices continued to move up.
Good liquidity and perspectives of favorable prices to producers – although lower compared to current – led producers to increase the planted area, decreasing the corn area. Conab (National Company for Food Supply) data released at the beginning of October indicated that Brazil may plant between 28.7 and 29.4 million hectares of soybean in the 2013/14 season. Considering yield between 2,938 kilos per hectare and 3,056 kilos per hectare, the Brazilian production may total between 87.6 and 89.7 million tons, for an increase from 7.5% to 10.1%, also a record.
Conab estimates that domestic crushing activities may resume increasing, to 40.7 million tons, but still lower compared to the total observed in 2010/11 (42 million tons). As for soybean exports, the Company indicates a volume of almost 46 million tons in 2014, a record.
In regard of by-products, processing activities might generate 28.7 million tons of soybean meal and 7.3 million tons of soybean oil in the 2013/14 crop, according to Conab data. As for the soybean meal, the domestic consumption may total 14.3 million tons, the highest up until now, but exports might be limited to 14 million tons. Considering soybean oil, the domestic consumption may total 5.8 million tons. It is also a record with exports of 1.4 million tons below the average over the last year.
In the Brazilian market, the ESALQ/BM&FBovespa Index for the soybean delivered at the Paranaguá port moved up 3.07% from September 30 to October 15, and closed at 73.84 reais or 33.81 dollars per 60-kilo bag on Oct. 15. In the same period, the CEPEA/ESALQ Index for soybean (Paraná state – reference for trades in Brazil), upped 3.1% and closed at 72.83 reais or 33.35 dollars per 60-kilo bag on October 15. (Cepea – Brazil)