US asking home prices in September up 11.5% year-over-year, 2% from August, including foreclosures; asking prices up in 97 of 100 largest metro areas from previous year: Trulia

SAN FRANCISCO , October 3, 2013 (press release) – Despite Jumping 11.5 Percent Year-over-Year Nationally, Asking Prices Are Slowing in 68 of the 100 Major U.S. Metros Including Oakland, Sacramento, Orange County, and Los Angeles

Trulia, Inc. (NYSE: TRLA), a leading online marketplace for home buyers, sellers, renters, and real estate professionals, today released the latest findings from the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor. These indices are the earliest leading indicators available of trends in home prices and rents. Based on for-sale homes and rentals listed on Trulia, the monitors take into account changes in the mix of listed homes and reflect trends in prices and rents for similar homes in similar neighborhoods through September 30, 2013. For the full report and methodology, see here.

Asking Home Prices Slowing down Despite Rising in September
Nationally, asking home prices rose 3.0 percent quarter-over-quarter (Q-o-Q) in September – the smallest Q-o-Q change since February. However, the downward trend is harder to spot in the more volatile monthly changes and smoothed out yearly changes. Asking prices rose 2.0 percent month-over-month (M-o-M) and 11.5 percent year-over-year (Y-o-Y), but year-over-year changes should start to shrink in the coming months. At the metro level, 89 of the 100 largest metros had Q-o-Q price increases in September, down from 97 in June.


September 2013 Trulia Price Monitor Summary

 

 

% change in asking prices

# of 100 largest metros with asking-price increases

% change in asking prices, excluding foreclosures

Month-over-month,
seasonally adjusted

           2.0%        

Not reported

2.0%

Quarter-over-quarter,
seasonally adjusted

3.0%

89

3.1%

Year-over-year

11.5%

97

11.5%

*Month-over-month change is September versus August. Quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes are three-month averages. Data from previous months are revised each month, so data being reported now for previous months might differ from previously reported data.



Asking Home Price Gains Slowing Down in California
The price slowdown is affecting most local markets. In September, asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros rose less Q-o-Q than in June. This downward trend was most apparent in Sacramento, Oakland, Orange County, and Los Angeles, where asking price gains had a slowdown of 2 percent or more, even though asking prices in those metros rose more than 20 percent Y-o-Y. Atlanta was the only metro where prices are up at least 20 percent Y-o-Y and Q-o-Q price changes are accelerating significantly.


Where Asking Prices Slowed Down Most Among Hottest Markets

#

U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % change, September 2013

Q-o-Q % change, September 2013

Q-o-Q % change, June 2013

Price slowdown =
Difference in Q-o-Q % change,
September minus June

1

Oakland, CA

29.2%

3.2%

11.1%

-8.0%

2

Sacramento, CA

33.6%

4.4%

8.6%

-4.2%

3

Los Angeles, CA

23.7%

4.3%

7.3%

-3.0%

4

Orange County, CA

24.4%

4.2%

6.8%

-2.6%

*Among 20 hottest housing markets where asking home prices rose at least 20 percent year-over-year. The final column equals the difference between the third and second data columns, but the numbers might not appear to add up due to rounding.



Rent Gains Also Slowing Down in September
Nationally, rents rose 3.0 percent Y-o-Y in September, down from 3.9 percent Y-o-Y in June. Locally, rent rose more slowly in September than in June in 18 of the 25 largest rental markets, including Seattle, Denver, and Houston. However, rents rose faster in September than in June in Portland, San Diego, Phoenix, and several other metros.


Where Rent Are Rising Fastest

#

U.S. Metro

Y-o-Y % change, September 2013

Y-o-Y % change, June 2013

Difference in Y-o-Y % change, September minus June

1

Portland, OR-WA

9.2%

7.9%

1.3%

2

Seattle, WA

8.8%

11.5%

-2.7%

3

San Francisco, CA

8.1%

7.9%

0.3%

4

Miami, FL

7.3%

6.9%

0.3%

5

San Diego, CA

6.7%

3.7%

2.9%

NOTE: Among 25 largest rental markets.



PRE-APPROVED QUOTES:

“Asking home prices give us the first look at where home sale prices are headed, and they point to a slowdown,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “After rising rapidly in the first half of 2013, asking prices in two thirds of the largest metros are cooling. In fact, asking prices are falling – not just rising more slowly – in 11 of the 100 largest metros, the most markets to see prices slip in six months.”

“Home prices are slowing down thanks to rising mortgage rates, expanding inventory, and fading investor activity, and soon we might thank the federal government as well,” said Jed Kolko, Trulia’s Chief Economist. “A prolonged government shutdown could hurt housing demand in Washington D.C. and other metros that depend heavily on federal money. Worse, in the unlikely event that hitting the debt ceiling later this month causes the government to stop paying its bills or – worst of all – default, the resulting financial panic could send the economy and the housing market into a tailspin.”

MULTIMEDIA

Graph of price changes from September 2012 to September 2013
List of price and rent changes for the largest metros: Excel or PDF

METHODOLOGY
To view the full methodology and 2013 release schedule, see here. The next release of the Trulia Price Monitor and the Trulia Rent Monitor will be Tuesday, November 5, at 10 AM ET.



ABOUT TRULIA, INC.
Trulia (NYSE: TRLA) gives home buyers, sellers, owners, and renters the inside scoop on properties, places, and real estate professionals. Trulia has unique info on the areas people want to live that can't be found anywhere else: users can learn about agents, neighborhoods, schools, crime, commute times, and even ask the local community questions. Real estate professionals use Trulia to connect with millions of transaction-ready buyers and sellers each month via our hyperlocal advertising services, social recommendations, and top-rated mobile real estate apps. Trulia’s Market Leader subsidiary delivers the leading end-to-end technology and marketing solutions that enable real estate professionals to grow and manage their businesses. Trulia is headquartered in downtown San Francisco. Trulia is a registered trademark of Trulia, Inc.

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