Global ad spending to grow 4% this year, down from 4.9% forecast last August, with 5.5% growth projected for 2014; 11 of 13 markets covered will see jump in ad spending this year, especially Russia, China, Brazil: WARC

OXFORDSHIRE, England , January 9, 2013 (press release) – The latest Consensus Ad Forecast from Warc, the marketing intelligence service, indicates that global advertising spend will increase by 4% in 2013, a downgrade of –0.9pp from August’s forecast. Adspend is expected to grow more rapidly in 2014, rising 5.5%.

Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc's own team and other industry bodies.

Of the 13 markets covered by the report, 11 are forecast growth in adspend in 2013. However, all countries, with the exception of Brazil, have seen expectations lowered since the last Consensus Forecast, released in August 2012.

Russia, China and Brazil are predicted to record the biggest increases in advertising  spend in 2013 with all-media growth of 12.3%, 10.9% and 9.8% respectively. These markets are expected to maintain high levels of growth in 2014.

By contrast, Spain and Italy are expected to be the worst performers this year, with predicted declines of -2.8% and -1.1% respectively. Both have had their forecasts significantly downgraded but are expected to return to growth in 2014.

The only channel predicted to show growth in all 13 markets is the internet. Online spend is expected to rise by 13.8% in 2013, although this still represents a decline of -0.6pp since our August forecast. All other media have also had expectations trimmed in recent months.

Suzy Young, Data Editor, Warc said: "In 2012, the industry benefited from the Olympics and the US presidential election. In 2013, we're all keen to see how advertising holds up without
these quadrennial factors. There are still risks for global economic growth. Marketers are not ready to adjust their cautious approach just yet. "

About Warc Forecasts & Data
Warc (www.warc.com) has produced trusted and independent data on advertising expenditure and media costs for more than 25 years. It has partnerships with leading advertising organisations in more than 80 countries.

The Warc Consensus Ad Forecast is updated four times a year and provides estimates for total advertising expenditure and expenditure on seven individual media for 13 markets. The markets covered by the forecast are: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, Spain, UK and US.

The media covered by Warc’s forecasts are: TV, newspapers, magazines, internet, outdoor, radio and cinema. Totals for individual media include both display and classified advertising.  The figures for internet advertising expenditure incorporate display, classified and search.

Warc data products are available on subscription from www.warc.com. They are used by leading advertisers, media agencies and media owners in all markets. To find out more about Warc’s data products and its flagship online service, www.warc.com, visit www.warc.com/Topics/ForecastsandData.topic or take a free trial at www.warc.com/trial

Tables for this article can be viewed at http://www.warc.com/Images/WARCSiteContent/PressReleases/Consensus_Ad_Forecast_09January2013.pdf

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