Global coffee production forecast to fall 2.4% year-over-year to 131 million bags in 2011/2012, International Coffee Organization says; coffee exports reach 9.3 million bags in February
April 11, 2012
– The following article is excerpted from the March Monthly Coffee Market Report published by the International Coffee Organization.
In terms of market fundamentals, total production by all exporting countries in crop year 2011/12 is around 131 million bags compared with 134.2 million bags in 2010/11. For crop year 2012/13, the only published information is the first official estimate of Brazilian production, which forecasts a crop of 50.6 million bags. It should be noted, however, that the size of this crop, which has recently begun harvesting and corresponds to the high production year in the biennial cycle of Arabica production, is the subject of intense debate, since some independent sources give substantially higher figures than those published by CONAB, the government agency responsible for crop forecasts. Some agronomists, on the other hand, point out the lack of rain in some regions, particularly in Zona da Mata in Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and Bahia, at the stage when the beans are developing. A brief analysis of production in selected exporting countries is included in this report.
Exports by all exporting countries during February 2012 totalled 9.3 million bags, bringing the cumulative total for coffee year 2011/12 (October 2011 to February 2012) to 41.5 million bags as against 42.3 million bags for the same period in 2010/11, a fall of 1.8%. In February, Vietnam achieved the highest level of exports among all exporting countries, with an estimated volume of 2.7 million bags compared with 2.1 million bags of all forms of coffee exported by Brazil. Ethiopia recorded a very low level of exports in February, at odds with its estimated production level for crop year 2011/12, which may have to be revised downwards.