CEPEA: Global coffee demand could reach 156.7 million-172.8 million 60-kg bags/year in 10 years, International Coffee Organization says; Brazil's harvest forecast at 50.6 million bags in the 2012/2013 season
March 26, 2012
– The coffee market looks promising, according to a report released by the ICO (International Coffee Organization) on March 1. In 10 years, the demand might reach between 156.7 million 60-kilo bags and 172.8 million bags per year. In 2010, the world demand is forecast to have reached 135 million bags – there is no official data for 2011 yet.
In all scenarios, projections indicate that the potential for the coffee demand in the retail sector may equal or even surpass production. As a result, for the next 10 years, prices are expected to remain at high levels.
This is good news for producers, because, due to the nearness of a record harvest in Brazil (2012/13), estimated for 50.6 million bags (Conab data), in a scenario of economic crisis in several coffee-consuming countries, players feared that the upward trend of coffee quotes would end in this season.
On the other hand, this good news for the mid-term may not reflect in coffee prices rise in the short-run. Depending on the world economic scenario, the demand might register a slight decrease, which, along with the higher Brazilian production in 2012/13, may result in a slight drop of coffee quotes until, at least, the peak period of the harvesting is over.