Global cocoa production forecast to fall 8% year-over-year to 3.96 million tonnes in 2011/2012, International Cocoa Organization says; cocoa grindings to rise 2% to 3.99 million tonnes

LONDON , February 29, 2012 (press release) – The International Cocoa Organization today released its first forecasts for the 2011/2012 cocoa year and revised estimates of world production, grindings and stocks of cocoa beans for 2010/2011, as summarized below.  The data published in Issue No. 1 - Volume XXXVIII - Cocoa year 2011/2012 of the Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, reflect the most recent information available to the Secretariat as at the middle of February 2012.  

Summary of forecasts and revised estimates

 

Cocoa year
(Oct-Sep)
2010/2011 2011/2012 Year-on-year change
   Previous estimates a/ Revised estimates Forecasts  
  (thousand tonnes)   (Per cent)
World production 4 250 4 304 3 961 - 343 - 8.0%
World grindings 3 867 3 914 3 992 + 78 + 2.0%
Surplus/deficit b/ + 341 + 347 - 71    
           
End-of-season stocks 1 834 1 777 1 706 - 71 - 4.0%
Stocks/Grindings ratio 47.4% 45.4% 42.7%    

Notes: 

a/   Forecasts published in Quarterly Bulletin of Cocoa Statistics, Vol. XXXVII - No. 4 - Cocoa year 2010/2011

b/   Surplus/deficit: net world crop (gross crop adjusted for loss in weight) minus grindings

Totals and differences may differ due to rounding.

This issue of the Bulletin contains the Secretariat’s first forecasts for the 2011/2012 cocoa year as well as data for the past four years of production and grindings of cocoa beans, detailed by country.  The main features of the global cocoa market are illustrated in colour charts.  In addition, the Bulletin includes comments on crop and demand prospects in the leading countries for the current season, and a review of price developments on international markets for cocoa beans during the October-December quarter of 2011. 

 

Statistical information on trade in cocoa beans, cocoa products and chocolate, by country and by region, published in this edition, covers annual data from 2007/2008 to 2009/2010 and quarterly statistics for the period October-December 2009 to April-June 2011.  Details of origin of imports and destination of exports for leading cocoa importing countries are also provided.  Historical statistics on cocoa trade and consumption, by country and by region, for the period 2001/2002 to 2009/2010 are presented for reference. 

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