Tanzania's coffee production forecast to grow 29.5% to 1.19 million 60-kg bags by 2015/2016, report says; sugar consumption to grow 15% to 555,000 tonnes by 2016; rice consumption to rise 12% to 1.13 million tonnes

Andrew Rogers

DUBLIN , February 28, 2012 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Tanzania Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

This quarter the author has extended its supply and demand forecasts for Tanzania's agricultural industries through to the end of 2016. Positive production growth is envisaged for all of Tanzania's agricultural sectors over the next few years. Growth will be particularly strong in the case of sugar and coffee. Growth within these subsectors will reflect the increased investment that is coming from both public and private-sector sources. Positive production growth will also benefit from the creation and opening-up of new markets for key export crops. In the five years to 2016, the author also envisages a steady expansion in output for Tanzania's main grain corn.

Key Forecasts

Coffee Production Growth to 2015/16: 29.5% to 1.19mn 60kg bags. A slightly revised forecast envisages a 17.5% fall in coffee output in 2011/12; this will see production drop to 756,000 60kg bags.

Sugar Consumption Growth to 2016: 15% to 550,000 tonnes. We maintain that higher sugar prices are expected to result in negative consumption growth in 2012.

Rice Consumption Growth to 2016: 12% to 1.13mn tonnes. Rice consumption continues to be greater in the diets of high-income consumers in urban areas.

Corn Production Growth to 2015/16: 23% to 4.05mn tonnes. Although drought had a negative impact on production in 2011, the author can now anticipate positive corn production growth in the 2011/12 crop year (ending June 2011).

Key Macroeconomic Forecasts

Tanzania Real GDP Growth 2012: 5.9%, down from 6.2% in 2011; predicted to average 6.6% between 2011 and 2020.
Tanzania Consumer Price Inflation 2012: predicted to average at 12.4% year-on-year in 2012, down only slightly from 12.6% in 2011 (predicted to fall to an average of 7.0% by 2014.

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