Spain's sugar production expected to fall 50% to 2 million tonnes by 2015/2016, driven by influx of cheap Latin American sugar, report says; corn output to rise 11.5% to 4 million tonnes; pork production to increase 8.3% to 3.7 million tonnes

Andrew Rogers

DUBLIN , February 28, 2012 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Spain Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

Spain Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Spain's agribusiness service.

Continued credit tightening in Spain will be the main limitation to expanding production in the country's agriculture sector in the medium-to-long term. We expect exports to moderate in 2012 in line with this dynamic. Overall, we are most optimistic over 2011/12 grains production, as abundant rainfall and relatively high temperatures have resulted in excellent yields which have kept output robust.

Key forecasts

Sugar production to 2015/16: -50.0% to 2.0mn tonnes. This decline will largely come from an influx of cheaper Latin American sugar into the EU market following the WTO's directive that the EU open up its domestic market to foreign sugar. Another important driver will be the gradual decline of EU sugar subsidies, which enabled the sector to compete for decades.

Corn production to 2015/16: 11.5% to 4.0mn tonnes. Corn's growing importance as a bioethanol feedstock will play a part in driving continued growth.

Pork production to 2015/16: 8.3% to 3.7mn tonnes. Growth will be buoyed by export opportunities and the importance of pork in the local diet.

2012 GDP growth: -0.5% (from 0.7% growth in 2011)

2012 consumer price index: 2.0% (from 1.3% in 2011)

Industry Developments The appearance of bluetongue disease in cattle poses a small downside risk to our beef production outlook. About 10 cases of the viral disease have been discovered in cattle at Malpartida de Plasencia as of December 2011, but there have been no deaths.

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