U.S. corn production forecast to grow 18.8% to 375.6 million tonnes by 2015/2016 due to consumption growth, export demand, report says; soybean output to increase 10.4% to 100 million tonnes amid rising demand from livestock sector
February 23, 2012
– Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "United States Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.
BMI View: We see the US remaining the world's largest agricultural producer over the long term, even though some of its sectors may decline in global importance. This is true for the country's livestock and dairy sector, for which the US has lost competitiveness compared to other large producers (particularly Brazil). Nevertheless, we believe the country will maintain its dominance in grain output. In 2011/12, even though wheat, corn and soybean production were affected by severe droughts, the country has maintained strong exports in value thanks to elevated grain prices. Also, we expect strong production growth over the long term, supported by strong demand (particularly due to poultry and ethanol production growth).
Corn production growth to 2015/16: 18.8% to 375.6mn tonnes. This will be due partly to consumption growth (much of which is going towards livestock but also some ethanol production). The export market will also be a significant growth driver for domestic production. Base effects are a key reason why the growth rate is not higher.
Poultry consumption growth to 2016: 21.3% to 19.9mn tonnes. This will be driven by consumer preference for poultry over red meat because it is a healthier option. Also, the Introduction of new poultry-based convenience products is fuelling demand.
Soybean production growth to 2015/16: 10.4% to 100.0mn tonnes. This will come on the back of increasing demand from the livestock sector both domestically and globally.
2012 Real GDP Growth: 2.0% (up from 1.8% in 2011; predicted to average 2.3% from 2011 until 2016).
Consumer Price Inflation: 2.1% year-on-year in 2012 (down from 3.0% in 2011; predicted to average 2.3% from 2011 until 2016).
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