Argentina's wheat production to grow 21.6% to 19.6 million tonnes by 2015/2016 amid increased plantings, high export demand, report says; soybean output to rise 54.3% to 78.1 million tonnes driven by higher yields

Andrew Rogers

DUBLIN , February 15, 2012 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Argentina Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

Business Monitor International's Argentina Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Argentina's agribusiness service.

BMI View: Even though the government is continuously intervening in the industry (which can distort production incentives), Argentine agriculture output is one of the world's strongest, running a surplus in virtually all commodities. We see a particularly strong wheat and corn output as high prices have encouraged farmers to plant more of both crops, at the expense of soybeans, for which we still forecast production to increase. On livestock, we forecast the poultry sector to take over the more traditional beef sector in the medium term because of increased investment in the sector.

Key Trends

Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 21.6% to 19.6mn tonnes. This will come from increased plantings as prices stay high by historical standards, as well as booming export demand.

Poultry consumption growth to 2015: 25.6% to 2.0mn tonnes. This will be due to increased consumer health-consciousness, as well as the lower price of chicken compared to beef and pork.

Soybean production growth to 2015/16: 54.3% to 78.1mn tonnes. This will come on the back of higher yields, in order to meet increased export demand, especially from emerging markets, as well as domestic demand from the livestock industry.

2012 Real GDP Growth: 4.1% (down from 7.0% in 2011; predicted to average 4.2% from now until 2015/16).

Consumer Price Inflation: 19.5% year-on-year in 2012 (down from 21.0% y-o-y in 2011).

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