Mexico's sugar production expected to rise 0.8% year-over-year to 5.61 million tonnes in 2011/2012, report says; corn output to increase 0.5% to 21.2 million tonnes; corn consumption to grow 7% to 30.83 million tonnes

DUBLIN , January 27, 2012 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Mexico Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

Business Monitor International's Mexico Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Mexico's agribusiness service.

BMI View: We forecast that the Mexican economy will continue to post solid growth, with real GDP growth set to average 2.6% between 2012 and 2020. We forecast a comfortable victory for Enrique Pea Nieto's PRI party in July 2012's presidential elections, which we believe will not adversely affect market sentiment. This bodes well for the agribusiness sector, as a business-friendly environment and stable economy will attract investment, thus improving efficiency.

Key Forecasts

Real GDP growth is forecast at 3.8% y-o-y in 2011, 3.1% y-o-y in 2012 and 2.4% y-o-y in 2013.

Droughts in Veracruz early in the 2011/12 harvest year caused damage to sugar plantations. However, high sugar prices are set to continue to motivate improved farm management and fertilisation, with the area harvested forecast to remain at 675,000 hectares. As a result, we have increased our forecast to 5.61mn tonnes, an increase of 0.8% y-o-y. To 2015/16, we forecast production to rise by 15.0% from the 2010/11 level to 6.39mn tonnes.

Poor weather and a decline in area harvested will see 2011/12 corn output increasing by just 0.5% y-o-y on the low 2010/11 total to 21.2mn tonnes. We have also revised down our forecast for corn consumption and now see demand growing by 7.0% y-o-y to 30.83mn tonnes. High prices are anticipated to put a dampener on domestic consumption and demand from the livestock sector.

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