CEPEA: Global coffee production may not meet increase in world demand in 2012/2013, as world consumption grew 16% from 2002/2003 to 133.85 million 60-kilo bags in the current crop year; Brazil's robusta production to thrive in 2012/2013 amid good weather
January 18, 2012
– Agents of the coffee sector are optimistic for 2012. The production in the 2012/13 crop, in Brazil and in the world, might not be enough to meet the increase in the global demand and to rebound inventories in both Brazil and in the world, which would be enough to bring relief to the sector. This scenario, in turn, might keep prices attractive.
The demand, both in Brazil and in the world, keeps the upward trend. Between 2002/03 and 2011/12, the world consumption moved up 16%, amounting 133.85 million 60-kilo bags in the current crop (USDA data). As for the Brazilian market, the demand upped 46% in the same period, reaching roughly 19.8 million 60-kilo bags in the 2011/12 season (USDA data).
Supply, on the other hand, has not followed the same pace. According to the historical USDA’s data (since the 1977/78 crop), the greatest world’s harvest was in the 2010/11 (136.377 million bags). In the 2011/12 crop (negative biennial cycle), the USDA estimates a production of 133.8 million bags.
Demand and supply are practically met up in the world market; therefore, it was not possible to increase stocks this season. As a result, ending stocks in the current crop may be one of the lowest of the last 10 years, amounting only 24 million bags (USDA). Brazil might also wrap up this season (2011/12), in June 2012, with low stocks.
As for robusta coffee, agents surveyed by Cepea have good expectations for the 2012/13 crop. Weather conditions in the Espírito Santo state, Brazil’s major producer of robusta, have been favorable for the development of the coffee berries. Moreover, good prices paid to producers during 2011 encouraged producers to invest more in crops, which may increase yield. In general terms, at least for the short-term, robusta quotes may keep the upward trend.