USDA Outlook: 2011/2012 season-average farm price for U.S. long-grain rice forecast at US$13.50-US$14.50/cwt., supported by smaller domestic supplies, higher quality; U.S. medium- and short-grain prices projected at US$15-US$16/cwt.
January 16, 2012
– The following article is excerpted from the January Rice Outlook published by the Economic Research Service of the USDA.
U.S. Season-Average Price Forecast for Medium- and Short-Grain Rice Lowered to $15.00-$16.00 per Cwt
The 2011/12 season-average farm price (SAFP) for U.S. long-grain rice remains projected at $13.50-$14.50 per cwt, well above the $11.10 estimated for 2010/11. U.S. long-grain prices in 2011/12 are being supported by much smaller U.S. supplies and higher quality.
The combined medium- and short-grain 2011/12 U.S. SAFP is projected at $15.00- $16.00 per cwt, down 50 cents on both the high and low end from last month’s forecast. The downward revision was based on monthly reported cash prices from NASS and expectations regarding prices the remainder of the market year. The midpoint is $2.90 below the 2010/11 SAFP of $18.40 per cwt. In 2011/12, U.S. medium- and short-grain prices are facing pressure from much larger U.S. supplies and increased competition from Australia and Egypt in the global rice market.
In late December, NASS reported a mid-December U.S. long-grain rough-rice price of $14.00 per cwt, unchanged from a revised November estimate. The November price was raised 20 cents from the mid-month estimate to $14.00. For combined medium- and short-grain rice, the mid-December NASS price was reported at $16.90 per cwt, up $1.10 from the revised November price. The November medium- and short-grain rough-rice cash price was lowered $1.10 from the mid-month estimate to $15.80 per cwt. The full-month medium- and short-grain rough-rice price declined from August through November, with the November price the lowest since July 2008.