Ukraine's wheat production forecast to grow 2.9% year-over-year to 21 million tonnes in 2012/2013 despite drop in winter wheat plantings, report says; corn output to reach 17.3 million tonnes, up from 16.2 million tonnes in 2011/2012

Andrew Rogers

DUBLIN , December 22, 2011 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Ukraine Agribusiness Report Q1 2012" report to their offering.

The 2011/12 season has seen Ukraine reap an exceptional grains harvest, which will have knock-on effects throughout the agricultural sector. While definitive figures for the year are yet to arrive, it seems certain that the harvest will at least approach the size of the bumper crop in 2008/09. As a result of this year's success, Ukraine has removed export duties on wheat and corn, which should encourage activity on the export markets and ensure the country's crop can compete with that of Russia. Dairy and livestock producers will also feel the benefits in terms of cheaper feed.

Key forecasts

Winter wheat plantings are down for 2012/13, however, we are still forecasting year-on-year (y-o-y) wheat production growth, albeit of only 2.9%, to 21.0mn tonnes.

In 2012, with a strong harvest the previous season, the author expects wheat consumption to rise to 11.9mn tonnes.

In 2011/12, corn production exceeded almost every agency's expectations, coming in at 16.2mn tonnes, up a whopping 36.2% y-o-y. In 2012/13, we are forecasting production to increase yet further to 17.3mn tonnes.

Broiler meat production reached 733,000 tonnes in 2010, up 12.8% y-o-y. In 2011, we estimate production of 801,000 tonnes, up 9.3% y-o-y, driven by rising demand.

In 2011, we estimate beef production fell further to 401,000 tonnes. Over our forecast period from 2011, we now expect to see output drop 30.7% to just 278,000 tonnes in 2016.

In 2010, milk production rose to 758,000 tonnes. In 2011, we are forecasting a 5.1% rise in output to 797,000 tonnes.

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