USDA WASDE: Global wheat production projected to rise 5.7% year-over-year to a record 689 million tons in 2011/2012
December 9, 2011
– The following article is excerpted from the December World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates published by the USDA.
WHEAT: U.S. wheat ending stocks for 2011/12 are projected 50 million bushels higher with reduced prospects for exports this month. Exports are lowered 50 million bushels with reductions projected for Hard Red Winter, Soft Red Winter, and White wheat. Larger supplies in several major exporting countries and relatively strong domestic prices, supported by the tight domestic corn supply and use situation, are expected to limit opportunities for U.S. wheat in world trade. Ending stocks for 2011/12, at 878 million bushels, are projected to be up 16 million from last year, but down 98 million from the recent high in 2009/10. The 2011/12 season-average farm price is lowered slightly to $7.05 to $7.55 per bushel compared with $7.05 to $7.75 last month.
Global wheat supplies for 2011/12 are projected 9.3 million tons higher with larger beginning stocks in Australia and Argentina and a 5.7-million-ton increase in foreign production. Beginning stocks for Australia are raised for 2011/12 with a 1.9-million-ton increase in 2010/11 production based on recently released data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Argentina beginning stocks for 2010/11 and 2011/12 are raised with revisions to 2009/10 and 2010/11 production based on the latest indications of available supplies and usage.
Global wheat production for 2011/12 is projected at a record 689.0 million tons, up 37.4 million from 2010/11, and 3.5 million higher than the previous record in 2009/10. Australia production for 2011/12 is raised 2.3 million tons in line with the latest government estimate. Another year of adequate to abundant precipitation across the country’s southern and eastern growing areas and a recovery in production in Western Australia pushes production to a record 28.3 million tons. Argentina production is raised 1.5 million tons with higher expected harvested area and yields with recent improvements in late-season growing conditions. Production for Canada is raised 1.1 million tons based on the latest estimate from Statistics Canada. Production is raised 0.9 million tons for China based on the recently released estimate from China’s National Bureau of Statistics. Other 2011/12 production changes this month are smaller and mostly offsetting.
Larger world supplies of wheat and competitive prices relative to corn boost prospects for 2011/12 world wheat trade. Global imports are raised 1.4 million tons with increases for several Asian countries where wheat feeding is expected to be higher including South Korea, Japan, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. Wheat imports are also raised for Mexico where tight domestic corn supplies are boosting demand for imported feed quality wheat. Partly offsetting is a reduction for Syria. Exports are raised 2.5 million tons for Australia and 1.0 million tons for Argentina with larger supplies and indications that exports from both countries remain very competitive with Black Sea and North American supplies. Exports are lowered 1.0 million tons for Ukraine and 1.4 million tons for the United States.
Global wheat consumption for 2011/12 is raised 3.4 million tons on higher expected foreign wheat feeding. In addition to the countries mentioned above, wheat feeding is also increased for Australia, China, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine. Global ending stocks are projected 5.9 million tons higher with the largest increases in Argentina, the United States, Canada, Australia, Ukraine, and China. At the projected 208.5 million tons, global wheat stocks would be the largest in 12 years.