Canada's pork consumption to grow 4% to more than 1 million tonnes by 2015, driven by competitive pricing, report says; corn output to increase 13% to more than 13 million tonnes by 2014/2015

DUBLIN , November 3, 2011 (press release) – Research and Markets has announced the addition of the "Canada Agribusiness Report Q4 2011" report to their offering.

The Canadian agriculture sector will remain a relatively regulated industry, although the expected closure of the Canadian Wheat Board in the coming months should increase competition in the country's wheat sector and benefit farmers, especially large ones. Despite the liberalization, the author is revising down its 2011/12 wheat output forecasts as bad weather affected plantings. Corn output will remain strong over the forecast period as ethanol plants are expected to come online in the coming years. Elsewhere, the author continues to see poor growth prospects for Canada's livestock sector (excluding poultry) even though high prices and government support have led to an unexpected increase in output in 2010/11. Given poor consumption growth and the expectation of moderating grain prices (which will ultimately lead to lower cattle prices), we continue to see poultry as being the outperformer among the grains complex over the medium term.

Key Trends

Pork consumption growth to 2015: 4% to 1.04mn tonnes. Consumption growth will be weak over the medium term as consumers switch to other livestock products. Pork consumption growth will, however, remain stronger than beef due to competitive pricing.

Corn production growth to 2014/15: 13% to 13.06mn tonnes. This will come from large domestic demand increases, owing to the Canadian government's decision to raise the renewable fuel content. As of yet, new ethanol plants have not come online but they are expected to in the coming years.

This will be due to continued yield increases and investment in the sector. However, the regulatory framework surrounding the sector should prevent any significant production increases. 2011 Real GDP Growth: 2% (down from 3.2% in 2010; predicted to average 2.6% from 2010 until 2015).

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