Long-awaited US housing recovery could be derailed by factors including another recession, oil shock or policy errors, says Forest Economic Advisors founder during i2live webinar hosted by Industry Intelligence
September 12, 2012
– U.S. homebuilding industry appears to be on the road to recovery with prices stabilizing and employment growing, says Brendan Lowney of Forest Economic Advisors; housing starts anticipated to hit around 900,000 in 2013.
Industry Intelligence Inc., a market intelligence and information management company serving the forest products, packaging, and food and beverage industries, released a recap from the Aug. 15 i2live webinar event with Forest Economic Advisors (FEA) principal and founder Brendan Lowney. The U.S. homebuilding industry appears to be on the road to recovery, with many experts predicting that U.S. housing starts will improve to roughly 900,000 annually in 2013, up from 750,000 in 2012 and roughly 624,000 each year in the previous four years. Economic factors pose varying degrees of risk, according to one expert.
Lowney spoke about risks that could derail the long awaited U.S. housing recovery, saying he based his risk assessment analysis on two presumptions: one, that the U.S. would not enter another recession; and two, that the U.S. going forward would experience decent, but not spectacular, economic growth.
“We are cautiously optimistic near-term, with the provision that it’s going to be very low housing starts relative to historical levels,” Lowney said of the U.S. market.
Lowney identified risk factors experts fear could stall the U.S. housing recovery and assessed their likely impact; however, he sees the U.S. housing market continuing to recover, based on stabilizing home prices, steady employment growth and a reduced inventory of existing homes. “The risks,” Lowney said, “are macroeconomic in nature…a blow-up of the euro, a recession due to going over a fiscal cliff, or an oil shock or policy-induced error. Long-term, the demographic underpinnings of U.S. housing demand are sound.”
To get the full transcript of this i2live event, email@example.com with your request.
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