Warm, dry spring is paving way for what could be very active wildfire season in Oregon and Pacific Northwest, with all of Oregon forecast to see above-normal wildfire danger by August; East Oregon is projected to see above-normal danger in July and August

May 8, 2025 (Statesman Journal) –

A warm and dry spring is setting the stage for what appears increasingly likely to be a busy wildfire season in Oregon and the Pacific Northwest .

All of Oregon is forecast to see above-normal wildfire danger by August while eastern Oregon is projected to see above-normal danger in July and August, according to the latest forecast released by the National Interagency Fire Center on May 1 .

Wildfire danger could arrive even earlier in the low elevations, said state climatologist Larry O'Neill, following one of the driest Aprils on record and forecasts for more of the same all summer.

"It's ominous," O'Neill said. "The dryness we're seeing now is normally what we'd see in mid-June. Unless we get a few good spring rainstorms in May or early June, we're going to be in pretty bad shape heading into fire season."

In summer 2024, Oregon set a record for acres burned by wildfires — 1.9 million acres — but it was almost entirely east of the Cascade Range and on rangeland.

Western Oregon had two fairly quiet wildfire seasons by modern standards in 2023 and 2024. That could change in 2025, especially by late July and August.

"We are preparing for what is likely to be an even more aggressive and increasingly difficult to control wildfire season this year," Gov. Tina Kotek said at a May 7 news conference.

A busy fire season would also come at a tricky time following sweeping federal cuts.

While state and federal firefighter numbers are expected to be similar to previous years, support staff, such as meteorologists available to work large wildfire incidents, could decline.

Local forest rangers, who are often the first to respond to small wildfires, have also been cut in large numbers by the U.S. Forest Service .

What's fueling forecast of high wildfire danger in Oregon ?

There are a few things fueling fears of an above-normal wildfire season in Oregon .

First and foremost are long-range forecasts that all paint a picture of warmer-than-normal and drier-than-normal conditions from May through August and into September.

"We've already been on a long dry spell, and looking forward, everything looks dry and hot," said John Saltenberger , the fire program manager at the Northwest Interagency Coordination Center. "At this point, it's our assumption fire season will be starting earlier than usual."

What happened to Oregon being in amazing shape, drought-wise?

It wasn't that long ago that climatologists were celebrating Oregon being completely free of drought and abnormal dryness for the first time since 2019.

Oregon has had above normal precipitation statewide, and the snowpack was in excellent shape all winter, leading to one of the best ski seasons in recent memory.

So what happened?

Well, April happened — a month that was one of the top 10 driest in Willamette Valley history across all the major cities.

"That warm and sunny weather drove a ton of evaporation, which really dried out our soils," O'Neill said. "It happened so fast that it's almost like we didn't actually have a good winter."

Kotek emphasized that fire season has already arrived.

"Fire season is here," she said. "We are already hearing call outs for debris burns on private property that have gotten out of control. Fire season has begun."

The trend has become almost commonplace since the late 2010s and 2020s.

Oregon has had a number of solid to good winters, in terms of rain and snow. But the state's springtimes have often become far warmer than historical norms, which leads to a quicker melt-off and dry-out than previously took place in Oregon .

Wet Oregon winter spurs vegetation growth that dries out into fine fuels

The upside of Oregon 's wet winter is that lakes and reservoirs are in relatively good shape. There is plenty of water being stored. That's particularly true in the southwest and northeast parts of the state.

The downside is that the excess precipitation drove the growth of vegetation statewide.

"We're going to have a lot of new fine fuels, and if things keep going the way we expect them to, they're going to dry out and leave us with a lot of dry fuel by the end of June or early July," O'Neill said.

Oregon wildfire danger most pressing at lower elevations

O'Neill said he suspected fire danger would be highest at lower elevations.

The alpine regions of the state still have a decent amount of snow, particularly across the southern and northeastern parts of the state.

"I think we could see a more normal fire season above 4,000 feet," O'Neill said. "But it's going to be very dry below that because the snow has already been gone for quite a while."

Strong monsoon season a big wildcard

One of the most intriguing questions of the season centers on what happens in the American Southwest.

NOAA has forecasted "above normal" chances for an active monsoon season in Arizona . That matters for Oregon because during the summer heat, moisture from monsoons often travels north and causes thunderstorms.

The thunderstorms can be a blessing or curse.

Sometimes, they bring storms with dry lightning that ignites hundreds of small fires that overwhelm even well-prepared crews.

Other times, they bring much-needed moisture that not only stops lightning strikes from becoming wildfires, but also tamps down the ongoing wildfire season.

Both scenarios have happened multiple times over the past five years.

"This year monsoon season is expected to come on stronger than usual," Saltenberger said. "Whether that results in wet or dry storms is always an open question."

East wind events always the biggest wildcard for Oregon wildfires

While issues like drought, monsoons and warm temperatures can set the stage for wildfire season, the season really comes down to two key factors — lightning strikes and east wind events.

Virtually all of western Oregon 's major wildfire blowups, including the 1933 Tillamook Burn, 2020 Labor Day fires and 2022 Cedar Creek explosion — along with countless others — have been fueled by major east wind events.

When Oregon gets them, and there are wildfires on the landscape, it tends to be a bad fire year.

When Oregon doesn't get them, or gets them a times when there aren't fires on the landscape, the state can escape fire season in decent shape.

Explore Oregon Podcast: Why are east winds such a pox for wildfires in Oregon ?

"We're confident that the potential for big wildfire is going to be there this year — that it's going to be a year with elevated fire danger," Saltenberger said. "What's much harder to determine is how much lightning we get, and does it come with rain and east winds? There's no tools for forecasting that this far in advance, and those are the factors that make the biggest difference."

Will federal cuts impact Oregon wildfire season? Hits to National Weather Service could have an impact

It's unclear exactly how big of an impact cuts made to federal agencies by the Trump administration will impact fire season.

Firefighters were exempt from the cuts, and federal agencies like the Forest Service have said they're planning to hire the same number of firefighters as previous years — roughly 11,300 personnel nationally and around 1,100 in the Pacific Northwest Region .

However, those in a support role, such as wilderness rangers that become de-facto firefighters and are often the first ones on the scene of a blaze, have been cut in large numbers across the West and Oregon .

In addition, cuts to the National Weather Service mean the agency may not be able to loan its meteorologists to incident command teams on major wildfires, O'Neill said.

The people who run critical infrastructure, such as radar, have also been taking buyouts while a hiring freeze has prevented filling critical positions.

O'Neill said Mother Nature isn't going to wait for people to get their act together.

"Not having that support staff could bring a number of challenges to this fire season," O'Neill said.

How many state firefighters are returning in Oregon ?

The number of state firefighters is expected to be at levels similar to past years, officials said.

The Oregon Department of Forestry will have roughly 700 firefighters ready for the 2025 season, in addition to support for another 1,000 firefighters focused on protecting structures that can be called upon through the Oregon State Fire Marshal. Contract crews can also be called upon.

The 2024 season was so busy, the state was short $218 million in paying contractors for their work during the 2024 wildfire season. A special legislative session was called that approved funds for paying all the contractors in December.

State officials said that delay didn't appear to have had an impact on contract crews willing to work in 2025.

Zach Urness has been an outdoors reporter in Oregon for 18 years and is host of the Explore Oregon Podcast. He can be reached at zurness@StatesmanJournal.com or (503) 399-6801. Find him on X at @ZachsORoutdoors and BlueSky at oregonoutdoors.bsky.social.

This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal : What is the Oregon wildfire forecast for 2025? Dry spring, hot summer increases danger