University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment posts preliminary January level of 64.6, up from December's 59.7; current assessments of personal finances increased to highest reading in eight months due to higher incomes, easing inflation

January 13, 2023 (press release) –

Preliminary Results for January 2023

Read our November 18th report, Five Patterns in Consumer Responses to Inflation.
Next data release: Friday, January 27, 2023 for Final January data at 10am ET
Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu
Consumer sentiment remained low from a historical perspective but continued lifting for the second consecutive month, rising 8% above December and reaching about 4% below a year ago. Current assessments of personal finances surged 16% to its highest reading in eight months on the basis of higher incomes and easing inflation. Although the short-run economic outlook fell modestly from December, the long-run outlook rose 7% to its highest level in nine months and is now 17% below its historical average.

Year-ahead inflation expectations receded for the fourth straight month, falling to 4.0% in January from 4.4% in December. The current reading is the lowest since April 2021 but remains well above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic. Long-run inflation expectations were little changed from December at 3.0%, again staying within the narrow 2.9-3.1% range for 17 of the last 18 months. Long-run inflation expectations remain elevated relative to the 2.2-2.6% range seen in the two years pre-pandemic. Uncertainty over both inflation expectations measures remains high, and changes in global factors in the months ahead may generate a reversal in recent improvements.